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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.23+3.48vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.12+2.65vs Predicted
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3Tulane University2.70+2.98vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.06+3.99vs Predicted
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5Brown University2.41+1.78vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.55+0.36vs Predicted
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7University of Hawaii1.15+4.54vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College2.03+0.08vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston1.75+0.23vs Predicted
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10Boston University0.72+3.20vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University1.28+0.16vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.74-2.41vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University1.52-3.01vs Predicted
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14Tufts University1.98-5.88vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan0.49-1.27vs Predicted
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16Christopher Newport University0.79-3.19vs Predicted
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17University of Miami-0.32-1.15vs Predicted
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18Connecticut College1.11-6.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.48Dartmouth College3.230.2%1st Place
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4.65Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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5.98Tulane University2.700.1%1st Place
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7.99University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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6.78Brown University2.410.1%1st Place
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6.36Georgetown University2.550.1%1st Place
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11.54University of Hawaii1.150.0%1st Place
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8.08Bowdoin College2.030.1%1st Place
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9.23College of Charleston1.750.0%1st Place
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13.2Boston University0.720.0%1st Place
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11.16Old Dominion University1.280.0%1st Place
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9.59U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.740.0%1st Place
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9.99Northeastern University1.520.0%1st Place
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8.12Tufts University1.980.1%1st Place
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13.73University of Michigan0.490.0%1st Place
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12.81Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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15.85University of Miami-0.320.0%1st Place
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11.46Connecticut College1.110.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maddie Hawkins | 15.8% | 16.2% | 13.8% | 12.5% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mia Nicolosi | 13.9% | 14.9% | 13.3% | 12.7% | 10.9% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 9.6% | 8.9% | 11.4% | 8.5% | 11.5% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Segalla | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Caroline Bayless | 8.7% | 10.1% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Piper Holthus | 8.7% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mercy Tangredi | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 12.5% | 10.2% | 6.9% | 4.7% |
| Ellie Maus | 6.2% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Grace Squires | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 0.3% |
| Lucy Paskoff | 1.9% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 12.1% | 11.2% | 17.8% | 10.7% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 5.6% | 4.0% |
| Emma AuBuchon | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 0.6% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 4.3% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 1.1% |
| Chloe Holder | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Christiana Scheibner | 1.3% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 14.0% | 17.7% | 15.0% |
| Grace Watlington | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 13.8% | 9.2% |
| Sarah Schuringa | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 8.7% | 14.4% | 50.2% |
| Aili Moffet | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 3.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.