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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.06+7.27vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College3.23+2.35vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.03+5.41vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.55+2.29vs Predicted
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5Yale University3.12-0.47vs Predicted
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6Tulane University2.70-0.19vs Predicted
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7Brown University2.41-0.16vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University1.28+2.94vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University1.52+1.08vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.74-0.46vs Predicted
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11Boston University0.72+2.06vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College1.11-0.05vs Predicted
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13University of Hawaii1.15-1.69vs Predicted
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14College of Charleston1.75-4.98vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University0.79-2.27vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan0.49-2.23vs Predicted
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17University of Miami-0.32-1.12vs Predicted
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18Tufts University1.98-9.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.27University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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4.35Dartmouth College3.230.1%1st Place
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8.41Bowdoin College2.030.0%1st Place
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6.29Georgetown University2.550.1%1st Place
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4.53Yale University3.120.2%1st Place
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5.81Tulane University2.700.1%1st Place
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6.84Brown University2.410.1%1st Place
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10.94Old Dominion University1.280.0%1st Place
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10.08Northeastern University1.520.0%1st Place
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9.54U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.740.0%1st Place
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13.06Boston University0.720.0%1st Place
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11.95Connecticut College1.110.0%1st Place
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11.31University of Hawaii1.150.0%1st Place
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9.02College of Charleston1.750.0%1st Place
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12.73Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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13.77University of Michigan0.490.0%1st Place
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15.88University of Miami-0.320.0%1st Place
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8.23Tufts University1.980.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sofia Segalla | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 14.2% | 16.9% | 14.5% | 14.9% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ellie Maus | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Piper Holthus | 9.3% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Mia Nicolosi | 17.2% | 16.0% | 12.6% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 10.4% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Caroline Bayless | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 2.7% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 1.4% |
| Emma AuBuchon | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| Lucy Paskoff | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 10.9% | 13.1% | 15.0% | 10.7% |
| Aili Moffet | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 10.4% | 5.1% |
| Mercy Tangredi | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 3.2% |
| Grace Squires | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 0.4% |
| Grace Watlington | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 12.0% | 14.1% | 8.5% |
| Christiana Scheibner | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 13.8% | 16.6% | 16.0% |
| Sarah Schuringa | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 9.0% | 15.4% | 50.5% |
| Chloe Holder | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.