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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.41+6.02vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.12+2.64vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.03+5.36vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.06+3.96vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University1.52+5.01vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University1.28+5.06vs Predicted
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7Tulane University2.70-1.18vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College3.23-3.75vs Predicted
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9University of Hawaii1.15+2.48vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.74-0.49vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College1.11+0.75vs Predicted
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12College of Charleston1.75-2.46vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University2.55-6.75vs Predicted
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14Boston University0.72-1.28vs Predicted
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15Tufts University1.98-6.70vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan0.49-2.21vs Predicted
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17University of Miami-0.32-1.14vs Predicted
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18Christopher Newport University0.79-5.34vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.02Brown University2.410.1%1st Place
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4.64Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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8.36Bowdoin College2.030.0%1st Place
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7.96University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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10.01Northeastern University1.520.0%1st Place
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11.06Old Dominion University1.280.0%1st Place
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5.82Tulane University2.700.1%1st Place
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4.25Dartmouth College3.230.2%1st Place
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11.48University of Hawaii1.150.0%1st Place
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9.51U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.740.0%1st Place
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11.75Connecticut College1.110.0%1st Place
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9.54College of Charleston1.750.0%1st Place
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6.25Georgetown University2.550.1%1st Place
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12.72Boston University0.720.0%1st Place
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8.3Tufts University1.980.1%1st Place
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13.79University of Michigan0.490.0%1st Place
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15.86University of Miami-0.320.0%1st Place
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12.66Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caroline Bayless | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Mia Nicolosi | 13.1% | 14.7% | 13.9% | 12.7% | 12.1% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ellie Maus | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Sofia Segalla | 5.4% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 2.0% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 3.5% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 11.5% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 18.4% | 17.9% | 12.5% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mercy Tangredi | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 3.9% |
| Emma AuBuchon | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 0.8% |
| Aili Moffet | 3.3% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 5.4% |
| Grace Squires | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 0.6% |
| Piper Holthus | 9.5% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Lucy Paskoff | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 13.3% | 14.8% | 9.0% |
| Chloe Holder | 5.1% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Christiana Scheibner | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 10.1% | 12.7% | 17.9% | 16.2% |
| Sarah Schuringa | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 9.7% | 14.9% | 49.9% |
| Grace Watlington | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 13.2% | 13.2% | 8.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.