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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.92+3.67vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College2.33+4.54vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.70+2.18vs Predicted
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4Brown University2.28+2.39vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University2.03+2.38vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.39+3.83vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University1.86+1.06vs Predicted
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8Tulane University2.16-1.10vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.18-2.23vs Predicted
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10College of Charleston2.04-2.41vs Predicted
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11Tufts University1.02+0.32vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College0.77+0.37vs Predicted
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13University of Miami0.55-0.35vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University0.49-1.24vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University0.37-1.65vs Predicted
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16University of Hawaii1.26-5.68vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan-0.52-1.23vs Predicted
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18Boston University0.39-4.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.67Yale University2.920.1%1st Place
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6.54Dartmouth College2.330.1%1st Place
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5.18Bowdoin College2.700.1%1st Place
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6.39Brown University2.280.1%1st Place
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7.38Northeastern University2.030.1%1st Place
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9.83George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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8.06Georgetown University1.860.1%1st Place
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6.9Tulane University2.160.1%1st Place
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6.77University of Pennsylvania2.180.1%1st Place
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7.59College of Charleston2.040.1%1st Place
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11.32Tufts University1.020.0%1st Place
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12.37Connecticut College0.770.0%1st Place
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12.65University of Miami0.550.0%1st Place
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12.76Old Dominion University0.490.0%1st Place
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13.35Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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10.32University of Hawaii1.260.0%1st Place
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15.77University of Michigan-0.520.0%1st Place
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13.14Boston University0.390.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emma Cowles | 15.0% | 16.0% | 11.3% | 13.9% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gray Hemans | 7.6% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Kaplan | 12.8% | 11.5% | 12.9% | 11.5% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Blaire McCarthy | 9.6% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Eva Ermlich | 6.8% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Islay Van Dusen | 4.0% | 1.9% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 1.4% |
| Riley Kloc | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Caroline Benson | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Torrey Chisari | 8.1% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Emma Tallman | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Samantha Jensen | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 3.4% |
| Hailey Pemberton | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 12.5% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 6.5% |
| Marina Geilen | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 11.9% | 12.7% | 8.9% |
| Emma Friedauer | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 13.4% | 14.2% | 8.2% |
| Laura Smith | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 11.6% | 13.6% | 14.3% | 12.5% |
| Morgan Carew | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 3.8% | 1.3% |
| Katherine Simcoe | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 16.4% | 46.7% |
| Madeline Stull | 1.7% | 0.9% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 10.4% | 11.4% | 13.2% | 13.8% | 10.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.