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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48+8.63vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.85+6.65vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+6.41vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.60+5.26vs Predicted
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5Tulane University2.02+5.71vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island2.78+4.42vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+4.34vs Predicted
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8Harvard University3.05-0.78vs Predicted
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9Yale University2.73-2.27vs Predicted
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10Tufts University1.83+1.68vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston2.49-1.55vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College2.90-4.03vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University2.75-4.76vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University2.45-4.85vs Predicted
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15Boston College2.40-3.88vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-6.52vs Predicted
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17Stanford University2.61-9.13vs Predicted
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18Bowdoin College2.03-5.35vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.63U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.485.4%1st Place
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8.65Brown University2.856.3%1st Place
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9.41St. Mary's College of Maryland2.575.0%1st Place
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9.26U. S. Naval Academy2.605.6%1st Place
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10.71Tulane University2.023.6%1st Place
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10.42University of Rhode Island2.784.8%1st Place
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11.34Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.163.3%1st Place
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7.22Harvard University3.058.6%1st Place
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6.73Yale University2.7310.8%1st Place
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11.68Tufts University1.833.0%1st Place
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9.45College of Charleston2.495.3%1st Place
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7.97Dartmouth College2.907.2%1st Place
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8.24Georgetown University2.757.2%1st Place
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9.15Roger Williams University2.455.2%1st Place
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11.12Boston College2.403.3%1st Place
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9.48Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.314.9%1st Place
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7.87Stanford University2.617.9%1st Place
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12.65Bowdoin College2.032.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colman Schofield | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% |
| Connor Nelson | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.5% |
| Owen Hennessey | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 3.4% |
| Nathan Smith | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.2% |
| Samantha Gardner | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 7.6% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.2% |
| Will Murray | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 10.8% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 8.6% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| Jack Egan | 10.8% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Kurt Stuebe | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 10.7% | 13.2% |
| Noah Zittrer | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.9% |
| Robert Bragg | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Mariner Fagan | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.6% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.2% |
| Michaela O'Brien | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 10.0% |
| Sam Bruce | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.1% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| Thibault Antonietti | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 11.3% | 22.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.