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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.73+5.92vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island2.78+8.54vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.61+5.01vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.75+4.37vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+4.71vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.06+4.60vs Predicted
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7College of Charleston2.49+2.50vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+3.41vs Predicted
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9Brown University2.85-0.25vs Predicted
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10Harvard University3.05-2.60vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College2.90-2.99vs Predicted
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12Boston College2.40-0.71vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-3.35vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy2.60-4.77vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48-5.12vs Predicted
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16Tufts University1.83-4.30vs Predicted
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17Roger Williams University2.45-7.91vs Predicted
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18Tulane University2.02-7.08vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.92Yale University2.739.8%1st Place
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10.54University of Rhode Island2.784.2%1st Place
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8.01Stanford University2.617.5%1st Place
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8.37Georgetown University2.756.2%1st Place
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9.71Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.314.8%1st Place
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10.6Bowdoin College2.063.5%1st Place
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9.5College of Charleston2.494.9%1st Place
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11.41Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.163.8%1st Place
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8.75Brown University2.856.0%1st Place
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7.4Harvard University3.059.4%1st Place
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8.01Dartmouth College2.907.6%1st Place
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11.29Boston College2.403.7%1st Place
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9.65St. Mary's College of Maryland2.575.0%1st Place
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9.23U. S. Naval Academy2.604.5%1st Place
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9.88U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.485.9%1st Place
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11.7Tufts University1.833.4%1st Place
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9.09Roger Williams University2.456.2%1st Place
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10.92Tulane University2.023.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Egan | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.1% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.5% |
| Mariner Fagan | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.5% |
| Sam Bruce | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% |
| Sam Bonauto | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 8.2% |
| Noah Zittrer | 4.9% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 3.8% |
| Will Murray | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 11.5% |
| Connor Nelson | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 2.3% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 9.4% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.9% |
| Robert Bragg | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 1.6% |
| Michaela O'Brien | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 9.7% | 11.7% |
| Owen Hennessey | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.4% |
| Colman Schofield | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.8% |
| Kurt Stuebe | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 15.0% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 3.9% |
| Samantha Gardner | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 10.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.