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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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2Harvard University2.30+4.71vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.69+2.41vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.11+0.32vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.64+0.68vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.45+0.41vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.63+2.01vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy2.40-1.53vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27+1.06vs Predicted
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10Fordham University1.57-0.93vs Predicted
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11Boston College3.07-6.46vs Predicted
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12North Carolina State University1.65-3.15vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College0.19-0.02vs Predicted
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14University of Wisconsin0.43-1.61vs Predicted
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15University of South Florida1.24-4.92vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont1.89-7.99vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.71Harvard University2.300.1%1st Place
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5.41Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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4.32Stanford University3.110.2%1st Place
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5.68Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.640.1%1st Place
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6.41U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.450.1%1st Place
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9.01Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.630.0%1st Place
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6.47U. S. Naval Academy2.400.1%1st Place
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10.06Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.0%1st Place
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9.07Fordham University1.570.0%1st Place
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4.54Boston College3.070.1%1st Place
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8.85North Carolina State University1.650.0%1st Place
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12.98SUNY Maritime College0.190.0%1st Place
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12.39University of Wisconsin0.430.0%1st Place
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10.08University of South Florida1.240.0%1st Place
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8.01University of Vermont1.890.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Burn | 8.8% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| Bridget Green | 10.7% | 12.3% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Freeman | 16.7% | 15.5% | 13.4% | 12.7% | 11.0% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dana Haig | 10.7% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Emily Bornarth | 8.1% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Claire Siegel-Wilson | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 7.0% | 2.7% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 8.9% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Heather Kerns | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 13.3% | 13.2% | 7.5% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 6.9% | 3.0% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 14.8% | 14.3% | 14.7% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Olivia Sowa | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 7.0% | 3.8% |
| Rebecca Runyan | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 10.9% | 21.1% | 42.0% |
| Marissa Tegeder | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 12.3% | 23.0% | 31.2% |
| Emma Shakespeare | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 13.0% | 13.0% | 12.4% | 7.6% |
| Grace Gear | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 1.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.