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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83+3.61vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University3.76+5.94vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University5.19+0.64vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.73+7.21vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.89+5.67vs Predicted
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6George Washington University2.84+5.07vs Predicted
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7Washington College3.65+1.17vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College4.15-1.59vs Predicted
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9Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+2.34vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.48-1.04vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy4.34-5.04vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania3.63-3.44vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49-7.72vs Predicted
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14Princeton University1.10+1.63vs Predicted
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15Columbia University2.34-2.44vs Predicted
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16Hampton University1.84-1.83vs Predicted
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17University of Virginia3.54-8.30vs Predicted
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18Hamilton College0.85-1.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.61St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.1%1st Place
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7.94Old Dominion University3.760.0%1st Place
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3.64Georgetown University5.190.2%1st Place
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11.21Fordham University2.730.0%1st Place
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10.67Cornell University2.890.0%1st Place
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11.07George Washington University2.840.0%1st Place
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8.17Washington College3.650.1%1st Place
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6.41SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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11.34Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.0%1st Place
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8.96U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.480.0%1st Place
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5.96U. S. Naval Academy4.340.1%1st Place
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8.56University of Pennsylvania3.630.0%1st Place
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5.28Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
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15.63Princeton University1.100.0%1st Place
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12.56Columbia University2.340.0%1st Place
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14.17Hampton University1.840.0%1st Place
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8.7University of Virginia3.540.0%1st Place
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16.1Hamilton College0.850.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Menninger | 14.6% | 14.8% | 13.5% | 12.2% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephanie Roble | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Charlie Buckingham | 21.2% | 19.2% | 14.8% | 14.4% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Sachs | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 5.6% | 1.2% |
| Vincent Andrews | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 3.7% | 1.1% |
| William Ricketson | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 1.5% |
| Michael Whitford | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Shawn Murray | 7.6% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 12.7% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 5.3% | 1.1% |
| Ian Holtzworth | 4.9% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Robert Vann | 9.8% | 10.9% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Halsey Richartz | 3.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Samuel Blouin | 12.1% | 11.1% | 12.5% | 10.0% | 11.7% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gavin Schlissel | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 25.6% | 32.4% |
| Billy Hines | 1.6% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 12.4% | 11.4% | 13.8% | 11.0% | 3.8% |
| Andrew Shoemaker | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 12.5% | 18.8% | 18.3% | 12.4% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| William McIvor | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 6.4% | 10.7% | 20.8% | 46.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.