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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University2.29+4.55vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.47+3.06vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.43+2.28vs Predicted
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4Boston College2.91+0.02vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.12+1.05vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island0.27+6.86vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy0.86+3.69vs Predicted
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8North Carolina State University1.46+0.39vs Predicted
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9University of South Florida0.77+2.19vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University0.95+0.33vs Predicted
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11University of Wisconsin0.86-0.22vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont0.57-0.28vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland0.91-2.39vs Predicted
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14Fordham University1.00-3.67vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College-0.02-1.48vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97-5.66vs Predicted
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17U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.11-10.70vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.55Harvard University2.290.1%1st Place
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5.06Stanford University2.470.1%1st Place
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5.28Cornell University2.430.1%1st Place
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4.02Boston College2.910.2%1st Place
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6.05Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.120.1%1st Place
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12.86University of Rhode Island0.270.0%1st Place
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10.69U. S. Naval Academy0.860.0%1st Place
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8.39North Carolina State University1.460.1%1st Place
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11.19University of South Florida0.770.0%1st Place
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10.33Roger Williams University0.950.0%1st Place
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10.78University of Wisconsin0.860.0%1st Place
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11.72University of Vermont0.570.0%1st Place
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10.61St. Mary's College of Maryland0.910.0%1st Place
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10.33Fordham University1.000.0%1st Place
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13.52SUNY Maritime College-0.020.0%1st Place
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10.34Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.970.0%1st Place
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6.3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.110.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marbella Marlo | 11.5% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ellie Harned | 13.8% | 11.8% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Meredith Moran | 11.2% | 13.8% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 12.6% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Michaela O'Brien | 20.0% | 15.9% | 14.2% | 14.0% | 10.8% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 9.7% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Taylor | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 13.7% | 13.7% | 19.6% |
| Aubin Hattendorf | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 4.8% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 5.8% | 3.5% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Heidi Hicks | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 7.4% |
| Caylin Schnoor | 2.0% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 5.0% |
| Mary Castellini | 3.3% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 6.1% |
| Caitlin Derby | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 12.1% | 10.7% |
| Lily Flack | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 6.1% |
| Caroline Sandoval | 1.6% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 4.2% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 0.6% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 15.5% | 30.5% |
| Brook Wood | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 4.7% |
| Emma Snead | 7.7% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.