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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83+3.39vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49+3.31vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy4.34+2.79vs Predicted
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4University of Virginia3.54+4.50vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College4.15+1.30vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania3.63+2.34vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University3.76+0.75vs Predicted
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8Washington College3.65+0.01vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University5.19-5.28vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.48-1.39vs Predicted
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11Fordham University2.73+0.30vs Predicted
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12Cornell University2.89-1.30vs Predicted
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13Stevens Institute of Technology2.75-1.74vs Predicted
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14Princeton University2.30-1.36vs Predicted
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15George Washington University2.84-4.16vs Predicted
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16Hampton University1.84-2.23vs Predicted
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17Hamilton College0.85-1.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.39St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.2%1st Place
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5.31Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
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5.79U. S. Naval Academy4.340.1%1st Place
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8.5University of Virginia3.540.0%1st Place
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6.3SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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8.34University of Pennsylvania3.630.0%1st Place
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7.75Old Dominion University3.760.1%1st Place
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8.01Washington College3.650.1%1st Place
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3.72Georgetown University5.190.2%1st Place
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8.61U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.480.0%1st Place
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11.3Fordham University2.730.0%1st Place
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10.7Cornell University2.890.0%1st Place
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11.26Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.0%1st Place
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12.64Princeton University2.300.0%1st Place
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10.84George Washington University2.840.0%1st Place
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13.77Hampton University1.840.0%1st Place
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15.75Hamilton College0.850.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Menninger | 17.1% | 13.5% | 13.3% | 12.1% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Blouin | 11.3% | 12.4% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 10.6% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Vann | 9.4% | 9.4% | 12.1% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Shawn Murray | 7.8% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Halsey Richartz | 4.6% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephanie Roble | 5.6% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Michael Whitford | 6.7% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Charlie Buckingham | 19.2% | 20.8% | 15.6% | 12.8% | 10.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Holtzworth | 3.5% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Alexander Sachs | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 12.3% | 12.3% | 11.4% | 3.2% |
| Vincent Andrews | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 6.6% | 2.5% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 12.1% | 11.5% | 8.7% | 3.7% |
| Mary Gamber | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 11.6% | 16.6% | 18.1% | 8.4% |
| William Ricketson | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 2.8% |
| Andrew Shoemaker | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 14.8% | 25.5% | 16.6% |
| William McIvor | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 14.5% | 62.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.