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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+6.34vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.99+6.19vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.42+3.52vs Predicted
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4Boston College3.07+3.61vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College3.47+1.14vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+3.34vs Predicted
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7Boston University2.57+2.74vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University2.18+3.24vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College3.06-1.38vs Predicted
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10North Carolina State University2.01+2.29vs Predicted
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11Webb Institute1.91+1.55vs Predicted
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12Tufts University2.62-2.10vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60-3.55vs Predicted
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14Georgetown University3.22-7.11vs Predicted
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15College of Charleston3.10-7.49vs Predicted
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16Florida State University1.97-3.77vs Predicted
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17St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62-3.38vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin1.75-5.18vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.34St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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8.19Stanford University2.990.1%1st Place
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6.52Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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7.61Boston College3.070.1%1st Place
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6.14Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
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9.34Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
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9.74Boston University2.570.0%1st Place
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11.24Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
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7.62SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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12.29North Carolina State University2.010.0%1st Place
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12.55Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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9.9Tufts University2.620.0%1st Place
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9.45U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.1%1st Place
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6.89Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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7.51College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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12.23Florida State University1.970.0%1st Place
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13.62St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.0%1st Place
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12.82University of Wisconsin1.750.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Boucher | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Connor Nelson | 9.0% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| Robert Bragg | 11.7% | 12.7% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.6% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.0% |
| Tyler Mowry | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 3.5% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.5% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 6.7% |
| Benton Amthor | 6.4% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Adam Larson | 3.2% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 12.2% |
| Rayne Duff | 3.2% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 11.5% | 13.2% | 13.6% |
| Trevor Davis | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 3.0% |
| Daniel Unangst | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 2.3% |
| Mariner Fagan | 7.6% | 11.5% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Noah Zittrer | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Joey Meagher | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 12.8% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 11.2% | 14.9% | 23.6% |
| Reed Weston | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 12.1% | 12.5% | 16.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.