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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University2.62+8.89vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60+7.94vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+6.67vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.93+4.24vs Predicted
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5Brown University3.42+1.33vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College3.47+0.19vs Predicted
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7Boston University2.57+2.85vs Predicted
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8Stanford University2.99-0.04vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22-1.88vs Predicted
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10George Washington University2.35+1.06vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston3.10-3.24vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University2.18-0.20vs Predicted
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13North Carolina State University2.01-0.98vs Predicted
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14Florida State University1.97-1.99vs Predicted
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15Boston College3.07-7.33vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College3.06-8.15vs Predicted
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17Webb Institute1.91-4.28vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin1.75-5.06vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.89Tufts University2.620.0%1st Place
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9.94U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.0%1st Place
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9.67Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.0%1st Place
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8.24Georgetown University2.930.1%1st Place
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6.33Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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6.19Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
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9.85Boston University2.570.0%1st Place
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7.96Stanford University2.990.1%1st Place
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7.12St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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11.06George Washington University2.350.0%1st Place
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7.76College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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11.8Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
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12.02North Carolina State University2.010.0%1st Place
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12.01Florida State University1.970.0%1st Place
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7.67Boston College3.070.1%1st Place
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7.85SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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12.72Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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12.94University of Wisconsin1.750.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Davis | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 3.5% |
| Daniel Unangst | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 2.5% |
| Sam Bruce | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.3% |
| Scott Mais | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.7% |
| Connor Nelson | 11.8% | 11.6% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Robert Bragg | 11.0% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Mowry | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 9.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.0% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 6.3% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% |
| Leo Boucher | 7.3% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Owen Timms | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 7.1% |
| Noah Zittrer | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Noyl Odom | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 11.1% |
| Adam Larson | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 13.6% |
| Joey Meagher | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 12.4% | 12.5% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 1.0% |
| Benton Amthor | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.2% |
| Rayne Duff | 2.8% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 13.7% | 17.1% |
| Reed Weston | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 11.8% | 11.0% | 19.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.