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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.75+6.29vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+9.85vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.38+7.47vs Predicted
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4Yale University2.92+4.19vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.28+4.85vs Predicted
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6Brown University2.91+1.86vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+2.75vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland1.76+5.40vs Predicted
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9Tulane University2.35+0.58vs Predicted
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10Harvard University3.18-3.87vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.93+0.89vs Predicted
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12Stanford University3.30-6.07vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University2.68-4.35vs Predicted
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14University of Rhode Island1.42-1.65vs Predicted
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15Tufts University2.22-5.37vs Predicted
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16Boston College2.56-6.14vs Predicted
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17College of Charleston2.38-7.96vs Predicted
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18Georgetown University2.40-8.72vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.29Dartmouth College2.758.6%1st Place
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11.85Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.772.5%1st Place
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10.47Bowdoin College2.383.5%1st Place
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8.19Yale University2.927.4%1st Place
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9.85U. S. Naval Academy2.285.1%1st Place
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7.86Brown University2.917.2%1st Place
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9.75U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.324.1%1st Place
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13.4St. Mary's College of Maryland1.762.1%1st Place
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9.58Tulane University2.354.7%1st Place
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6.13Harvard University3.1811.7%1st Place
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11.89Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.933.0%1st Place
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5.93Stanford University3.3011.9%1st Place
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8.65Roger Williams University2.685.7%1st Place
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12.35University of Rhode Island1.422.4%1st Place
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9.63Tufts University2.224.3%1st Place
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9.86Boston College2.564.8%1st Place
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9.04College of Charleston2.385.6%1st Place
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9.28Georgetown University2.405.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maddie Hawkins | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 11.6% | 11.9% |
| Thomas Hall | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 5.2% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| Jack Welburn | 5.1% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 3.9% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 1.1% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.0% |
| Madison Bashaw | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 13.4% | 25.0% |
| Hamilton Barclay | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 2.9% |
| Justin Callahan | 11.7% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Maks Groom | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 14.2% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 11.9% | 12.6% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Carlos de Castro | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 1.4% |
| Tyler Nash | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 16.4% |
| Ben Mueller | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 3.0% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.4% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.8% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 1.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.