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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University5.19+2.47vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83+2.40vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania3.63+5.20vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy4.34+1.92vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University3.76+2.62vs Predicted
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6Fordham University2.73+5.39vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49-1.59vs Predicted
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8University of Virginia3.54+0.35vs Predicted
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9Washington College3.65-0.73vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.44-1.28vs Predicted
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11George Washington University2.84-0.13vs Predicted
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12Stevens Institute of Technology2.75-0.87vs Predicted
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13Hampton University1.84+0.71vs Predicted
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14Cornell University2.89-3.22vs Predicted
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15Princeton University2.30-2.50vs Predicted
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16Hamilton College0.85-0.27vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College4.15-10.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.47Georgetown University5.190.2%1st Place
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4.4St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.2%1st Place
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8.2University of Pennsylvania3.630.0%1st Place
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5.92U. S. Naval Academy4.340.1%1st Place
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7.62Old Dominion University3.760.0%1st Place
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11.39Fordham University2.730.0%1st Place
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5.41Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
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8.35University of Virginia3.540.1%1st Place
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8.27Washington College3.650.0%1st Place
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8.72U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.440.0%1st Place
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10.87George Washington University2.840.0%1st Place
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11.13Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.0%1st Place
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13.71Hampton University1.840.0%1st Place
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10.78Cornell University2.890.0%1st Place
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12.5Princeton University2.300.0%1st Place
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15.73Hamilton College0.850.0%1st Place
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6.51SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Buckingham | 24.0% | 19.3% | 15.7% | 11.6% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Menninger | 16.8% | 13.7% | 13.6% | 12.9% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Halsey Richartz | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Robert Vann | 10.8% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Stephanie Roble | 4.7% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Alexander Sachs | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 13.2% | 9.6% | 3.6% |
| Samuel Blouin | 10.1% | 11.0% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 5.7% | 3.4% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Michael Whitford | 4.1% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Eric Horrocks | 3.3% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| William Ricketson | 2.6% | 1.6% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 12.7% | 11.1% | 8.4% | 2.1% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 11.4% | 10.9% | 11.9% | 9.2% | 2.7% |
| Andrew Shoemaker | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 11.1% | 13.6% | 26.3% | 17.9% |
| Vincent Andrews | 1.4% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 12.6% | 10.4% | 6.4% | 2.2% |
| Mary Gamber | 1.0% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 11.0% | 14.9% | 18.2% | 8.3% |
| William McIvor | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 4.2% | 7.0% | 15.7% | 61.8% |
| Shawn Murray | 6.8% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.