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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+9.90vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.73+9.09vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83+1.40vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49+1.43vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University5.19-1.49vs Predicted
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6Hampton University1.84+7.92vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University3.76+0.70vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College4.15-1.65vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania3.63-0.68vs Predicted
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10Hamilton College0.85+5.68vs Predicted
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11George Washington University2.84-0.03vs Predicted
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12Washington College3.65-3.90vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.44-4.07vs Predicted
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14Cornell University2.89-3.19vs Predicted
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15University of Virginia3.54-6.54vs Predicted
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16U. S. Naval Academy4.34-10.17vs Predicted
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17Princeton University2.30-4.41vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.9Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.0%1st Place
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11.09Fordham University2.730.0%1st Place
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4.4St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.1%1st Place
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5.43Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
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3.51Georgetown University5.190.2%1st Place
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13.92Hampton University1.840.0%1st Place
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7.7Old Dominion University3.760.1%1st Place
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6.35SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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8.32University of Pennsylvania3.630.0%1st Place
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15.68Hamilton College0.850.0%1st Place
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10.97George Washington University2.840.0%1st Place
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8.1Washington College3.650.0%1st Place
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8.93U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.440.0%1st Place
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10.81Cornell University2.890.0%1st Place
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8.46University of Virginia3.540.0%1st Place
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5.83U. S. Naval Academy4.340.1%1st Place
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12.59Princeton University2.300.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerard Tonachel | 2.9% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 12.1% | 11.9% | 8.3% | 2.6% |
| Alexander Sachs | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 13.3% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 3.3% |
| Michael Menninger | 14.2% | 15.8% | 14.1% | 12.6% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Blouin | 11.3% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlie Buckingham | 23.7% | 20.4% | 14.8% | 11.9% | 9.9% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Shoemaker | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 10.1% | 15.0% | 26.3% | 18.9% |
| Stephanie Roble | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Shawn Murray | 9.1% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 6.8% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Halsey Richartz | 4.6% | 3.4% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| William McIvor | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 7.3% | 16.5% | 60.7% |
| William Ricketson | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 8.3% | 2.4% |
| Michael Whitford | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Eric Horrocks | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 0.6% |
| Vincent Andrews | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 11.8% | 7.4% | 2.0% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| Robert Vann | 8.0% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mary Gamber | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 15.8% | 18.0% | 8.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.