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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.70+2.94vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont1.27+5.55vs Predicted
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3Northeastern University1.37+4.22vs Predicted
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4Harvard University3.03-0.75vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63-0.97vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College1.55+0.78vs Predicted
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7Tufts University1.62-0.56vs Predicted
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8Maine Maritime Academy0.79+0.57vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College1.65-2.66vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University1.68-3.61vs Predicted
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11Tufts University1.51-3.97vs Predicted
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12Bates College-0.11-1.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.94Bowdoin College2.700.2%1st Place
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7.55University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
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7.22Northeastern University1.370.1%1st Place
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3.25Harvard University3.030.3%1st Place
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4.03U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.2%1st Place
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6.78Bowdoin College1.550.1%1st Place
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6.44Tufts University1.620.1%1st Place
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8.57Maine Maritime Academy0.790.0%1st Place
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6.34Bowdoin College1.650.1%1st Place
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6.39Northeastern University1.680.1%1st Place
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7.03Tufts University1.510.0%1st Place
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10.46Bates College-0.110.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elizabeth Kaplan | 17.0% | 16.9% | 15.1% | 13.2% | 13.3% | 9.6% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Christian Cushman | 3.6% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 11.9% | 14.6% | 11.7% | 7.6% |
| Joshua Dillon | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 12.5% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 5.4% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 25.2% | 20.2% | 17.2% | 12.4% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 16.9% | 17.3% | 15.4% | 11.4% | 12.6% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Jonathan Chance | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 3.4% |
| Ella Hubbard | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 3.3% |
| Nalu Ho | 2.5% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 13.0% | 21.0% | 16.8% |
| Benjamin Stevens | 5.1% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 11.6% | 12.1% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 1.6% |
| Sam Monaghan | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 13.4% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 2.6% |
| Adrien Bellanger | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 12.0% | 13.1% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 3.8% |
| Harry Stevenson | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 8.3% | 15.0% | 55.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.