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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.03+2.26vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63+2.08vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.70+0.85vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College1.55+2.83vs Predicted
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5Tufts University1.62+1.59vs Predicted
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6Bates College-0.11+4.46vs Predicted
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7Tufts University1.51-0.26vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont1.27-0.61vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University1.68-2.72vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University1.37-2.83vs Predicted
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11Maine Maritime Academy0.79-2.20vs Predicted
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12Bowdoin College1.65-5.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.26Harvard University3.030.2%1st Place
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4.08U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.2%1st Place
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3.85Bowdoin College2.700.2%1st Place
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6.83Bowdoin College1.550.0%1st Place
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6.59Tufts University1.620.1%1st Place
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10.46Bates College-0.110.0%1st Place
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6.74Tufts University1.510.1%1st Place
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7.39University of Vermont1.270.1%1st Place
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6.28Northeastern University1.680.1%1st Place
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7.17Northeastern University1.370.1%1st Place
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8.8Maine Maritime Academy0.790.0%1st Place
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6.55Bowdoin College1.650.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Callahan | 23.2% | 21.8% | 17.4% | 12.8% | 9.6% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 16.0% | 16.3% | 14.5% | 14.3% | 11.4% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Kaplan | 18.3% | 17.5% | 15.7% | 10.6% | 12.5% | 11.0% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Jonathan Chance | 4.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 4.8% |
| Ella Hubbard | 6.0% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 11.8% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 7.9% | 3.5% |
| Harry Stevenson | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 16.2% | 54.9% |
| Adrien Bellanger | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 4.0% |
| Christian Cushman | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 14.7% | 11.5% | 7.2% |
| Sam Monaghan | 6.3% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 1.8% |
| Joshua Dillon | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 12.0% | 12.1% | 12.4% | 11.3% | 4.4% |
| Nalu Ho | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 10.5% | 14.5% | 22.1% | 16.6% |
| Benjamin Stevens | 5.8% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 6.8% | 2.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.