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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49+4.26vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy4.34+3.72vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University5.19+0.61vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania3.63+4.21vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83-0.65vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University3.76+1.86vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.73+4.20vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College4.15-1.65vs Predicted
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9Washington College3.65-0.78vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.44-1.25vs Predicted
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11University of Virginia3.54-2.41vs Predicted
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12George Washington University2.84-1.19vs Predicted
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13Stevens Institute of Technology2.75-1.79vs Predicted
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14Cornell University2.89-3.15vs Predicted
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15Hampton University1.84-1.32vs Predicted
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16Princeton University2.30-3.42vs Predicted
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17Hamilton College0.85-1.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.26Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
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5.72U. S. Naval Academy4.340.1%1st Place
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3.61Georgetown University5.190.2%1st Place
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8.21University of Pennsylvania3.630.0%1st Place
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4.35St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.2%1st Place
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7.86Old Dominion University3.760.0%1st Place
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11.2Fordham University2.730.0%1st Place
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6.35SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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8.22Washington College3.650.0%1st Place
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8.75U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.440.0%1st Place
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8.59University of Virginia3.540.0%1st Place
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10.81George Washington University2.840.0%1st Place
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11.21Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.0%1st Place
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10.85Cornell University2.890.0%1st Place
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13.68Hampton University1.840.0%1st Place
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12.58Princeton University2.300.0%1st Place
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15.75Hamilton College0.850.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Blouin | 12.7% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Vann | 9.2% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlie Buckingham | 21.2% | 19.1% | 15.7% | 13.8% | 10.1% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Halsey Richartz | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Michael Menninger | 15.7% | 15.2% | 16.5% | 12.6% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephanie Roble | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Sachs | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 12.6% | 12.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% |
| Shawn Murray | 9.1% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 11.2% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Whitford | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Eric Horrocks | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| William Ricketson | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 2.2% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 1.9% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 12.2% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 4.5% |
| Vincent Andrews | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 1.7% |
| Andrew Shoemaker | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 9.1% | 13.4% | 27.8% | 17.3% |
| Mary Gamber | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 11.1% | 12.6% | 16.6% | 15.6% | 7.5% |
| William McIvor | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 14.4% | 62.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.