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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University1.27+4.46vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont0.46+5.51vs Predicted
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3Tufts University1.66+1.46vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College1.57+0.66vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.59-0.37vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College0.42+1.60vs Predicted
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7Harvard University0.09+1.22vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University2.00-4.36vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University0.67-2.22vs Predicted
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10Maine Maritime Academy0.01-1.52vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College1.25-5.43vs Predicted
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12Bates College-1.38-1.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.46Tufts University1.270.1%1st Place
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7.51University of Vermont0.460.0%1st Place
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4.46Tufts University1.660.2%1st Place
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4.66Bowdoin College1.570.1%1st Place
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4.63U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.590.1%1st Place
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7.6Bowdoin College0.420.0%1st Place
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8.22Harvard University0.090.0%1st Place
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3.64Northeastern University2.000.2%1st Place
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6.78Northeastern University0.670.0%1st Place
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8.48Maine Maritime Academy0.010.0%1st Place
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5.57Bowdoin College1.250.1%1st Place
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10.98Bates College-1.380.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marina Garrido | 10.1% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 12.0% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 0.4% |
| Sandra Yale | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 11.4% | 12.7% | 15.5% | 13.2% | 4.2% |
| Matthew Wallace | 15.3% | 11.9% | 13.6% | 13.0% | 12.6% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Danielson | 11.1% | 15.7% | 12.8% | 13.4% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Peter McGonagle | 13.2% | 14.3% | 13.6% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| Charlie Apolinsky | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 11.9% | 12.8% | 16.1% | 12.3% | 5.5% |
| Aidan Pesce | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 15.0% | 20.7% | 9.2% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 22.3% | 17.3% | 14.9% | 13.5% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Ashley Arruda | 4.2% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 11.0% | 11.5% | 13.1% | 11.0% | 8.6% | 1.3% |
| Griffen Horne | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 11.9% | 15.5% | 22.7% | 10.5% |
| Christine Reimer | 9.0% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 2.7% | 0.7% |
| Gray Dinsel | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 13.1% | 67.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.