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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.45+3.16vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University4.33+2.38vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05+5.55vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University4.01+1.19vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College3.00+3.52vs Predicted
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6Cornell University3.27+1.65vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy4.09-1.97vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.68+1.59vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.30-1.53vs Predicted
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10Washington College2.29+1.33vs Predicted
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11Fordham University2.50-0.51vs Predicted
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12University of Virginia3.01-3.17vs Predicted
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13Stevens Institute of Technology2.02-1.13vs Predicted
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14Princeton University1.50-0.57vs Predicted
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15George Washington University2.23-3.67vs Predicted
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16Hampton University0.60-0.11vs Predicted
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17Columbia University2.13-5.13vs Predicted
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18Hamilton College0.75-2.56vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.16Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.450.2%1st Place
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4.38Georgetown University4.330.1%1st Place
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8.55St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.0%1st Place
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5.19Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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8.52SUNY Maritime College3.000.0%1st Place
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7.65Cornell University3.270.1%1st Place
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5.03U. S. Naval Academy4.090.1%1st Place
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9.59University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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7.47U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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11.33Washington College2.290.0%1st Place
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10.49Fordham University2.500.0%1st Place
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8.83University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
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11.87Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.0%1st Place
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13.43Princeton University1.500.0%1st Place
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11.33George Washington University2.230.0%1st Place
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15.89Hampton University0.600.0%1st Place
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11.87Columbia University2.130.0%1st Place
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15.44Hamilton College0.750.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Thompson | 17.0% | 18.4% | 13.0% | 12.8% | 11.0% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Furnary | 15.0% | 14.6% | 15.1% | 12.8% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Wallace | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Dillon Paiva | 12.7% | 12.7% | 12.3% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted Green | 3.7% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Philip Alley | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Clark Hayes | 14.3% | 12.1% | 10.1% | 12.9% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 3.6% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Nick Aswad | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mildred Conroy | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 6.1% | 2.0% |
| Joseph Turchiano | 3.5% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 1.1% |
| Christopher Stessing | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Christian Geary | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 12.1% | 11.3% | 7.8% | 3.8% |
| Gene Merewether | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 14.6% | 16.6% | 10.7% |
| Meredith Carroll | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 2.2% |
| Kimannee Simon | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 6.9% | 10.2% | 21.4% | 42.7% |
| David Coplon | 1.7% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 12.2% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 3.6% |
| Julie Webster | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 8.3% | 13.5% | 23.8% | 32.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.