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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.75+6.32vs Predicted
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2Boston College2.56+7.87vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.22+6.58vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College2.38+6.32vs Predicted
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5Harvard University3.18+0.97vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+3.79vs Predicted
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7College of Charleston2.38+2.52vs Predicted
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8Brown University2.91-0.13vs Predicted
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9Yale University2.92-0.74vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.28-0.45vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.93+0.98vs Predicted
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12Stanford University3.30-6.12vs Predicted
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13Tulane University2.35-3.54vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland2.05-2.63vs Predicted
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15Roger Williams University2.40-5.77vs Predicted
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16Georgetown University2.20-6.12vs Predicted
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17Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-5.03vs Predicted
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181.42-4.81vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.32Dartmouth College2.757.8%1st Place
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9.87Boston College2.565.0%1st Place
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9.58Tufts University2.225.2%1st Place
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10.32Bowdoin College2.384.6%1st Place
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5.97Harvard University3.1811.2%1st Place
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9.79U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.324.6%1st Place
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9.52College of Charleston2.384.8%1st Place
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7.87Brown University2.917.8%1st Place
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8.26Yale University2.926.7%1st Place
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9.55U. S. Naval Academy2.285.5%1st Place
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11.98Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.932.8%1st Place
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5.88Stanford University3.3012.4%1st Place
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9.46Tulane University2.355.3%1st Place
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11.37St. Mary's College of Maryland2.053.0%1st Place
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9.23Roger Williams University2.405.0%1st Place
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9.88Georgetown University2.204.3%1st Place
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11.97Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.772.4%1st Place
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13.191.421.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maddie Hawkins | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 5.0% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.0% |
| Ben Mueller | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 3.7% |
| Thomas Hall | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% |
| Justin Callahan | 11.2% | 11.4% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 4.5% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 2.5% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.2% |
| Jack Welburn | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 3.9% |
| Maks Groom | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 13.2% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 12.4% | 12.0% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Hamilton Barclay | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 3.1% |
| Charlie Anderson | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 10.7% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.1% |
| Diego Escobar | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 12.2% |
| Henry Lee | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 11.9% | 24.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.