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📊 Prediction Accuracy
45.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University2.01+3.82vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College2.35+1.90vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania1.88+2.23vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College0.19+5.16vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.64+0.70vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.05-1.34vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.55-1.29vs Predicted
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8Fordham University0.81-0.41vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57-3.05vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania1.61-4.38vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.76-3.34vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.82Fordham University2.010.1%1st Place
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3.9SUNY Maritime College2.350.2%1st Place
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5.23University of Pennsylvania1.880.1%1st Place
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9.16SUNY Maritime College0.190.0%1st Place
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5.7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.640.1%1st Place
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4.66University of Pennsylvania2.050.1%1st Place
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5.71Fordham University1.550.1%1st Place
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7.59Fordham University0.810.0%1st Place
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5.95U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.1%1st Place
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5.62University of Pennsylvania1.610.1%1st Place
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7.66U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.760.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Thress | 9.8% | 14.4% | 12.1% | 11.2% | 12.7% | 11.4% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| Spencer Barnes | 20.4% | 15.5% | 14.9% | 12.7% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Madeleine Rice | 10.8% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 1.7% |
| Rebecca Runyan | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 6.1% | 8.7% | 19.3% | 45.7% |
| Thomas Green | 10.0% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 4.0% |
| Benjamin Honig | 13.5% | 13.7% | 11.9% | 12.3% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 3.2% | 0.9% |
| Will Donovan | 9.0% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 4.0% |
| James Owen | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 11.4% | 12.6% | 18.7% | 17.3% |
| Lars Osell | 7.8% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 4.3% |
| John Majernik | 9.5% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 12.2% | 5.2% | 3.5% |
| Patrick Modin | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 10.5% | 15.1% | 18.4% | 17.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.