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📊 Prediction Accuracy
63.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.05+3.74vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College2.35+1.92vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College0.19+6.07vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.64+1.86vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57+0.88vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.61-0.23vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.55-1.26vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.76-0.31vs Predicted
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9Fordham University0.81-1.22vs Predicted
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10Fordham University2.01-5.34vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania1.88-6.11vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.74University of Pennsylvania2.050.1%1st Place
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3.92SUNY Maritime College2.350.2%1st Place
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9.07SUNY Maritime College0.190.0%1st Place
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5.86U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.640.1%1st Place
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5.88U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.1%1st Place
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5.77University of Pennsylvania1.610.1%1st Place
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5.74Fordham University1.550.1%1st Place
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7.69U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.760.0%1st Place
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7.78Fordham University0.810.0%1st Place
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4.66Fordham University2.010.1%1st Place
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4.89University of Pennsylvania1.880.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Honig | 10.0% | 14.1% | 13.2% | 12.0% | 12.6% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 0.7% |
| Spencer Barnes | 18.6% | 17.0% | 13.8% | 12.4% | 12.6% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Rebecca Runyan | 2.4% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 10.2% | 17.2% | 45.3% |
| Thomas Green | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 12.3% | 9.8% | 12.0% | 10.3% | 7.1% | 3.9% |
| Lars Osell | 9.4% | 7.2% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 4.5% |
| John Majernik | 8.5% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 11.8% | 7.1% | 4.1% |
| Will Donovan | 8.9% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 12.3% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 4.3% |
| Patrick Modin | 4.4% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 14.3% | 20.2% | 16.3% |
| James Owen | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 10.6% | 14.7% | 18.9% | 18.8% |
| Lucas Thress | 13.8% | 13.7% | 12.7% | 12.1% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 1.1% |
| Madeleine Rice | 12.0% | 13.7% | 11.2% | 12.2% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 0.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.