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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island2.78+7.67vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.73+4.90vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania1.77+6.41vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.60+3.01vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+4.66vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+3.88vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University2.68+0.24vs Predicted
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8George Washington University1.82+1.33vs Predicted
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9Webb Institute1.73+0.29vs Predicted
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10Harvard University3.18-5.06vs Predicted
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11Eckerd College1.17+0.91vs Predicted
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12Florida State University1.69-1.55vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-4.40vs Predicted
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14Cornell University2.38-5.68vs Predicted
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15Tulane University2.28-6.46vs Predicted
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16Northeastern University1.59-2.35vs Predicted
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170.68-2.79vs Predicted
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18Connecticut College1.20-5.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.67University of Rhode Island2.785.9%1st Place
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6.9Brown University2.737.9%1st Place
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9.41University of Pennsylvania1.774.5%1st Place
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7.01U. S. Naval Academy2.607.8%1st Place
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9.66Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.314.7%1st Place
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9.88Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.774.0%1st Place
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7.24Roger Williams University2.689.4%1st Place
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9.33George Washington University1.824.5%1st Place
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9.29Webb Institute1.735.6%1st Place
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4.94Harvard University3.1815.2%1st Place
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11.91Eckerd College1.172.9%1st Place
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10.45Florida State University1.693.8%1st Place
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8.6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.576.0%1st Place
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8.32Cornell University2.386.5%1st Place
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8.54Tulane University2.286.6%1st Place
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13.65Northeastern University1.591.6%1st Place
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14.210.681.5%1st Place
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12.98Connecticut College1.201.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerem Erkmen | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.2% |
| Guthrie Braun | 7.9% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Sofia Segalla | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.5% |
| Nathan Smith | 7.8% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Sam Bruce | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 2.5% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 4.7% | 2.1% |
| Carlos de Castro | 9.4% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Tyler Wood | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.1% |
| Rayne Duff | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 1.8% |
| Justin Callahan | 15.2% | 13.1% | 13.8% | 11.5% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Vieira | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 9.8% |
| Peter Foley | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 3.5% |
| Owen Hennessey | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.4% |
| Bridget Green | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 0.8% |
| Kelly Holthus | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 17.3% | 23.8% |
| Jack Homa | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 16.4% | 29.7% |
| Skylor Sweet | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 12.7% | 14.2% | 17.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.