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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University4.01+4.40vs Predicted
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2Cornell University3.27+5.82vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.30+4.66vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.45+0.02vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University4.33-0.75vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy4.09-1.05vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania2.68+2.69vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05+0.24vs Predicted
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9Washington College2.29+2.18vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College3.00-1.18vs Predicted
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11University of Virginia3.01-2.29vs Predicted
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12Princeton University1.50+1.91vs Predicted
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13Fordham University2.50-2.76vs Predicted
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14George Washington University2.23-2.98vs Predicted
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15Stevens Institute of Technology2.02-2.98vs Predicted
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16Hampton University0.60-0.11vs Predicted
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17Columbia University2.13-5.24vs Predicted
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18Hamilton College0.75-2.59vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.4Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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7.82Cornell University3.270.0%1st Place
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7.66U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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4.02Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.450.2%1st Place
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4.25Georgetown University4.330.2%1st Place
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4.95U. S. Naval Academy4.090.1%1st Place
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9.69University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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8.24St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.0%1st Place
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11.18Washington College2.290.0%1st Place
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8.82SUNY Maritime College3.000.0%1st Place
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8.71University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
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13.91Princeton University1.500.0%1st Place
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10.24Fordham University2.500.0%1st Place
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11.02George Washington University2.230.0%1st Place
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12.02Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.0%1st Place
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15.89Hampton University0.600.0%1st Place
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11.76Columbia University2.130.0%1st Place
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15.41Hamilton College0.750.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dillon Paiva | 11.9% | 9.9% | 12.3% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Philip Alley | 3.5% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Nick Aswad | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| David Thompson | 18.4% | 18.7% | 15.0% | 12.0% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Furnary | 17.9% | 17.2% | 14.8% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Clark Hayes | 12.9% | 12.9% | 12.3% | 13.4% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| John Wallace | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Mildred Conroy | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 11.0% | 8.8% | 5.2% | 1.4% |
| Ted Green | 4.4% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Christopher Stessing | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Gene Merewether | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 15.2% | 17.8% | 14.1% |
| Joseph Turchiano | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 1.2% |
| Meredith Carroll | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 2.4% |
| Christian Geary | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 11.6% | 12.2% | 8.2% | 3.7% |
| Kimannee Simon | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 10.0% | 22.5% | 41.5% |
| David Coplon | 1.8% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 12.1% | 6.9% | 2.8% |
| Julie Webster | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 7.7% | 13.6% | 25.0% | 31.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.