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📊 Prediction Accuracy
5.6%
Within 2 Positions
5.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.12+6.46vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College2.65+7.40vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University3.00+4.92vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.83+4.30vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+4.08vs Predicted
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6University of Michigan1.07+8.85vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04+4.61vs Predicted
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8Tulane University2.94-0.11vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island3.23-2.30vs Predicted
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10Jacksonville University0.94+5.29vs Predicted
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11Harvard University3.54-5.24vs Predicted
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12University of Miami2.66-2.52vs Predicted
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13Cornell University2.86-4.85vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College2.45-4.35vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy2.76-6.34vs Predicted
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16University of Hawaii2.28-5.25vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Barbara2.34-6.47vs Predicted
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18Fordham University2.50-8.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.46Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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9.4Bowdoin College2.650.0%1st Place
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7.92Roger Williams University3.000.1%1st Place
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8.3University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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9.08Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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14.85University of Michigan1.070.0%1st Place
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11.61U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
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7.89Tulane University2.940.1%1st Place
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6.7University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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15.29Jacksonville University0.940.0%1st Place
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5.76Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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9.48University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
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8.15Cornell University2.860.1%1st Place
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9.65Connecticut College2.450.0%1st Place
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8.66U. S. Naval Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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10.75University of Hawaii2.280.0%1st Place
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10.53University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.0%1st Place
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9.53Fordham University2.500.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Egan | 6.9% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Christopher Lukens | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 1.3% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Jordan Bruce | 7.0% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| Will Murray | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 1.3% |
| Joe Serpa | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 21.7% | 33.3% |
| Lucas Sawin | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 6.0% |
| Cameron Giblin | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 8.7% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Matthew King | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 8.9% | 18.8% | 42.0% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 13.4% | 10.9% | 11.4% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Atlee Kohl | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 1.6% |
| Hayden Earl | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| CJ Mckenna | 4.2% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 4.7% | 1.7% |
| Gavin McJones | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Bastien Rasse | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 4.0% |
| Chris Kayda | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 4.1% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 1.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.