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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+8.41vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.54+3.77vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.76+5.92vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College2.65+4.98vs Predicted
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5Tulane University2.94+2.91vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.86+2.30vs Predicted
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7Jacksonville University0.94+8.14vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.83+0.34vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College2.45+0.91vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04+1.90vs Predicted
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11Yale University3.12-3.66vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island3.23-4.84vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University3.00-5.47vs Predicted
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14University of Miami2.66-5.19vs Predicted
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15Fordham University2.50-5.29vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Barbara2.34-5.54vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan1.07-2.07vs Predicted
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18University of Hawaii2.28-7.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.41Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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5.77Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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8.92U. S. Naval Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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8.98Bowdoin College2.650.1%1st Place
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7.91Tulane University2.940.1%1st Place
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8.3Cornell University2.860.1%1st Place
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15.14Jacksonville University0.940.0%1st Place
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8.34University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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9.91Connecticut College2.450.0%1st Place
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11.9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
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7.34Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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7.16University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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7.53Roger Williams University3.000.1%1st Place
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8.81University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
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9.71Fordham University2.500.0%1st Place
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10.46University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.0%1st Place
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14.93University of Michigan1.070.0%1st Place
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10.48University of Hawaii2.280.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Murray | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 1.7% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 11.2% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Gavin McJones | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 0.6% |
| Christopher Lukens | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 1.0% |
| Cameron Giblin | 7.1% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Hayden Earl | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 8.3% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 0.8% |
| Matthew King | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 18.8% | 40.2% |
| Jordan Bruce | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| CJ Mckenna | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 2.5% |
| Lucas Sawin | 3.2% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 12.4% | 11.7% | 7.1% |
| Jack Egan | 9.1% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 8.4% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Atlee Kohl | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 1.5% |
| Chris Kayda | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 3.7% |
| Joe Serpa | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 6.9% | 10.8% | 19.2% | 35.2% |
| Bastien Rasse | 4.2% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 2.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.