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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.83+7.39vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.12+5.16vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island3.23+3.82vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara2.34+6.09vs Predicted
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5Harvard University3.54+0.49vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University3.00+1.52vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.76+1.51vs Predicted
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8Jacksonville University0.94+6.93vs Predicted
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9University of Miami2.66-0.17vs Predicted
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10Fordham University1.78+2.62vs Predicted
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11University of Hawaii2.28-0.43vs Predicted
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12Tulane University2.94-3.95vs Predicted
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13Bowdoin College2.65-4.27vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04-2.90vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College2.45-5.29vs Predicted
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16Cornell University2.69-7.17vs Predicted
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17Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-7.89vs Predicted
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18University of Michigan1.07-3.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.39University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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7.16Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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6.82University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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10.09University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.0%1st Place
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5.49Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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7.52Roger Williams University3.000.1%1st Place
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8.51U. S. Naval Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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14.93Jacksonville University0.940.0%1st Place
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8.83University of Miami2.660.0%1st Place
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12.62Fordham University1.780.0%1st Place
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10.57University of Hawaii2.280.0%1st Place
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8.05Tulane University2.940.1%1st Place
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8.73Bowdoin College2.650.1%1st Place
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11.1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
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9.71Connecticut College2.450.0%1st Place
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8.83Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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9.11Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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14.55University of Michigan1.070.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Bruce | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 0.5% |
| Jack Egan | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 8.0% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Chris Kayda | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 2.6% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 14.8% | 13.6% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 8.1% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Gavin McJones | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.3% |
| Matthew King | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 17.5% | 38.4% |
| Atlee Kohl | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Beckett Kumler | 3.0% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 12.3% | 15.1% | 10.8% |
| Bastien Rasse | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 3.7% |
| Cameron Giblin | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 0.2% |
| Christopher Lukens | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.0% |
| Lucas Sawin | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 5.7% |
| CJ Mckenna | 4.4% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 1.8% |
| Bridget Green | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 1.2% |
| Will Murray | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| Joe Serpa | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 12.0% | 19.0% | 29.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.