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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.54+4.76vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.83+6.51vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island3.23+3.90vs Predicted
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4Yale University3.12+3.05vs Predicted
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5Tulane University2.94+2.81vs Predicted
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6University of Miami2.66+3.09vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.69+1.82vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Barbara2.34+2.22vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04+2.52vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University3.00-2.15vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College2.46-1.01vs Predicted
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12Fordham University2.50-2.00vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-4.11vs Predicted
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14University of Michigan1.07+0.55vs Predicted
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15Bowdoin College2.49-5.36vs Predicted
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16University of Hawaii2.28-5.37vs Predicted
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17U. S. Naval Academy2.76-8.33vs Predicted
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18Jacksonville University0.94-2.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.76Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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8.51University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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6.9University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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7.05Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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7.81Tulane University2.940.1%1st Place
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9.09University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
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8.82Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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10.22University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.0%1st Place
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11.52U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
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7.85Roger Williams University3.000.1%1st Place
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9.99Connecticut College2.460.1%1st Place
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10.0Fordham University2.500.0%1st Place
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8.89Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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14.55University of Michigan1.070.0%1st Place
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9.64Bowdoin College2.490.0%1st Place
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10.63University of Hawaii2.280.0%1st Place
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8.67U. S. Naval Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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15.08Jacksonville University0.940.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachlain McGranahan | 11.7% | 13.8% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 5.0% | 4.9% | 8.0% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 1.1% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 8.3% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Jack Egan | 9.3% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Cameron Giblin | 7.6% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| Atlee Kohl | 6.1% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 2.0% |
| Bridget Green | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 0.8% |
| Chris Kayda | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 6.4% | 2.7% |
| Lucas Sawin | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 10.0% | 12.5% | 9.6% | 5.5% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Walter Henry | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 3.1% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 2.8% |
| Will Murray | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 1.5% |
| Joe Serpa | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 9.8% | 19.7% | 31.5% |
| Thibault Antonietti | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 1.9% |
| Bastien Rasse | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 4.2% |
| Gavin McJones | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 0.8% |
| Matthew King | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 8.7% | 17.6% | 40.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.