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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.76+7.56vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.12+5.06vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island3.23+3.71vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+4.67vs Predicted
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5Harvard University2.75+3.32vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University3.00+1.39vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania2.83+1.05vs Predicted
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8University of Miami2.66+0.68vs Predicted
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9Jacksonville University0.94+6.05vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04+1.55vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College2.46-1.24vs Predicted
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12University of Hawaii2.28-1.31vs Predicted
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13Tulane University2.50-3.72vs Predicted
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14Cornell University2.69-5.68vs Predicted
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15Fordham University2.50-5.62vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Barbara2.34-5.84vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan1.07-2.24vs Predicted
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18Bowdoin College2.65-9.37vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.56U. S. Naval Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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7.06Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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6.71University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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8.67Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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8.32Harvard University2.750.1%1st Place
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7.39Roger Williams University3.000.1%1st Place
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8.05University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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8.68University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
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15.05Jacksonville University0.940.0%1st Place
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11.55U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
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9.76Connecticut College2.460.1%1st Place
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10.69University of Hawaii2.280.0%1st Place
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9.28Tulane University2.500.1%1st Place
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8.32Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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9.38Fordham University2.500.1%1st Place
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10.16University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.0%1st Place
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14.76University of Michigan1.070.0%1st Place
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8.63Bowdoin College2.650.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin McJones | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| Jack Egan | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 8.9% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Will Murray | 6.9% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 0.9% |
| Dylan Ascencios | 6.2% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 8.7% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Jordan Bruce | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.0% |
| Atlee Kohl | 5.9% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 1.4% |
| Matthew King | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 18.4% | 39.3% |
| Lucas Sawin | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 6.9% |
| Walter Henry | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 2.8% |
| Bastien Rasse | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 2.8% |
| Thad Lettsome | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 1.6% |
| Bridget Green | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 3.7% | 1.8% |
| Chris Kayda | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 3.8% |
| Joe Serpa | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 20.0% | 33.9% |
| Christopher Lukens | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 1.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.