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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.76+7.43vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+6.95vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.65+5.86vs Predicted
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4Harvard University2.75+4.07vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University3.00+2.17vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.83+1.96vs Predicted
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7Yale University3.12-0.34vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.50+1.15vs Predicted
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9University of Michigan1.07+5.63vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island3.23-3.46vs Predicted
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11University of Hawaii2.28-0.67vs Predicted
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12Cornell University2.69-3.17vs Predicted
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13Tulane University2.50-3.85vs Predicted
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14Jacksonville University0.94+0.65vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College1.85-3.14vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Barbara2.34-6.00vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04-5.69vs Predicted
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18University of Miami2.66-9.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.43U. S. Naval Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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8.95Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.0%1st Place
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8.86Bowdoin College2.650.1%1st Place
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8.07Harvard University2.750.1%1st Place
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7.17Roger Williams University3.000.1%1st Place
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7.96University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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6.66Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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9.15Fordham University2.500.0%1st Place
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14.63University of Michigan1.070.0%1st Place
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6.54University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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10.33University of Hawaii2.280.0%1st Place
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8.83Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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9.15Tulane University2.500.1%1st Place
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14.65Jacksonville University0.940.0%1st Place
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11.86Connecticut College1.850.0%1st Place
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10.0University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.0%1st Place
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11.31U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
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8.43University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin McJones | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Will Murray | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Christopher Lukens | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Dylan Ascencios | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 8.4% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Jordan Bruce | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% |
| Jack Egan | 9.4% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 6.1% | 9.5% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 1.4% |
| Joe Serpa | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 10.7% | 19.4% | 31.5% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 10.9% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Bastien Rasse | 4.9% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 4.5% |
| Bridget Green | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.6% |
| Thad Lettsome | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.1% |
| Matthew King | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 16.7% | 36.4% |
| Harris Padegs | 3.1% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 11.6% | 13.1% | 7.5% |
| Chris Kayda | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 3.0% |
| Lucas Sawin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 6.2% |
| Atlee Kohl | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 0.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.