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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University1.90+10.19vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College2.81+5.58vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island2.07+7.60vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.50+4.53vs Predicted
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5University of Miami2.27+4.47vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.43+2.92vs Predicted
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7Yale University2.75+0.56vs Predicted
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8Tulane University2.70-0.24vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College2.82-1.74vs Predicted
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10Harvard University3.64-5.40vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.00vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.99-0.92vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy2.99-6.40vs Predicted
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14University of Hawaii1.94-3.38vs Predicted
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15Jacksonville University1.65-2.99vs Predicted
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16University of Pennsylvania2.35-6.65vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Barbara1.85-5.59vs Predicted
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18University of Michigan0.53-2.53vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.19Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
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7.58Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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10.6University of Rhode Island2.070.0%1st Place
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8.53Roger Williams University2.500.1%1st Place
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9.47University of Miami2.270.0%1st Place
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8.92Cornell University2.430.1%1st Place
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7.56Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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7.76Tulane University2.700.1%1st Place
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7.26Connecticut College2.820.1%1st Place
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4.6Harvard University3.640.2%1st Place
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11.0U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.0%1st Place
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11.08Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.990.0%1st Place
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6.6U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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10.62University of Hawaii1.940.0%1st Place
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12.01Jacksonville University1.650.0%1st Place
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9.35University of Pennsylvania2.350.0%1st Place
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11.41University of California at Santa Barbara1.850.0%1st Place
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15.47University of Michigan0.530.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Dolan | 3.6% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 6.9% |
| Thomas Hall | 5.8% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% |
| Miles Williams | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 3.7% |
| Cameron Wood | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.5% |
| Aidan Dennis | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 1.6% |
| Meredith Moran | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 1.4% |
| Carmen Cowles | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 6.3% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 7.3% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Justin Callahan | 17.8% | 13.8% | 13.0% | 12.6% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 3.9% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 4.7% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 5.4% |
| Nathan Smith | 9.6% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Owen Lahr | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 4.7% |
| Emily Allen | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 9.5% |
| Javier Garcon | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.4% |
| David Alexander | 3.2% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 6.6% |
| Brody Schwartz | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 8.2% | 13.4% | 49.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.