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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.50+7.89vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.43+7.27vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.64+1.59vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College2.82+3.35vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.99+1.76vs Predicted
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6University of Hawaii1.94+5.02vs Predicted
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7Tulane University2.70+0.88vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island2.07+2.40vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.90+2.19vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College2.81-2.27vs Predicted
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11University of Miami2.27-1.20vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Barbara1.85-0.27vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania2.35-3.82vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95-3.33vs Predicted
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15Yale University2.75-7.33vs Predicted
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16Jacksonville University1.65-3.78vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan0.53-1.29vs Predicted
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18Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-9.06vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.89Roger Williams University2.500.1%1st Place
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9.27Cornell University2.430.0%1st Place
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4.59Harvard University3.640.2%1st Place
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7.35Connecticut College2.820.1%1st Place
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6.76U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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11.02University of Hawaii1.940.0%1st Place
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7.88Tulane University2.700.1%1st Place
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10.4University of Rhode Island2.070.0%1st Place
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11.19Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
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7.73Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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9.8University of Miami2.270.1%1st Place
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11.73University of California at Santa Barbara1.850.0%1st Place
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9.18University of Pennsylvania2.350.0%1st Place
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10.67U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.0%1st Place
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7.67Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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12.22Jacksonville University1.650.0%1st Place
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15.71University of Michigan0.530.0%1st Place
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8.94Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Wood | 5.4% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 1.0% |
| Meredith Moran | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 0.8% |
| Justin Callahan | 16.2% | 15.6% | 13.9% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 8.1% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Nathan Smith | 8.9% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Owen Lahr | 3.6% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 5.3% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Miles Williams | 3.7% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 3.8% |
| Patrick Dolan | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 4.6% |
| Thomas Hall | 8.2% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Aidan Dennis | 5.2% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 2.5% |
| David Alexander | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 6.9% |
| Javier Garcon | 4.8% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 1.1% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 4.4% |
| Carmen Cowles | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Emily Allen | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 12.5% | 11.1% |
| Brody Schwartz | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 13.0% | 54.7% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 5.8% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 1.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.