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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.75+6.83vs Predicted
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2Fordham University1.90+9.40vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.81+4.58vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+4.92vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.06+5.36vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island2.07+4.42vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.43+1.92vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy2.99-1.35vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Barbara1.85+2.28vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95+1.20vs Predicted
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11University of Miami2.27-1.24vs Predicted
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12Harvard University3.64-7.26vs Predicted
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13Tulane University2.70-5.30vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College2.82-6.90vs Predicted
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15Jacksonville University1.65-2.95vs Predicted
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16University of Hawaii1.94-4.98vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan0.53-1.33vs Predicted
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18Roger Williams University2.50-9.60vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.83Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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11.4Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
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7.58Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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8.92Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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10.36University of Pennsylvania2.060.0%1st Place
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10.42University of Rhode Island2.070.0%1st Place
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8.92Cornell University2.430.1%1st Place
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6.65U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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11.28University of California at Santa Barbara1.850.0%1st Place
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11.2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.0%1st Place
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9.76University of Miami2.270.0%1st Place
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4.74Harvard University3.640.2%1st Place
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7.7Tulane University2.700.1%1st Place
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7.1Connecticut College2.820.1%1st Place
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12.05Jacksonville University1.650.0%1st Place
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11.02University of Hawaii1.940.0%1st Place
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15.67University of Michigan0.530.0%1st Place
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8.4Roger Williams University2.500.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmen Cowles | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Patrick Dolan | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 6.6% |
| Thomas Hall | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 1.9% |
| Sofia Segalla | 3.2% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 3.8% |
| Miles Williams | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 4.1% |
| Meredith Moran | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.7% |
| Nathan Smith | 9.9% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| David Alexander | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 4.2% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 5.6% |
| Aidan Dennis | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.0% |
| Justin Callahan | 17.1% | 16.1% | 12.6% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 8.0% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 8.0% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Emily Allen | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 10.6% | 12.1% | 9.8% |
| Owen Lahr | 2.4% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 11.1% | 5.0% |
| Brody Schwartz | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 7.4% | 14.0% | 52.2% |
| Cameron Wood | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 1.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.