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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University4.33+3.49vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College3.00+6.79vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05+5.56vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy4.09+0.91vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.68+4.56vs Predicted
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6Washington College2.29+5.19vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.50+3.35vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University4.01-2.84vs Predicted
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9Cornell University3.27-1.47vs Predicted
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10Princeton University1.50+3.86vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.45-6.85vs Predicted
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12University of Virginia3.01-3.18vs Predicted
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13Stevens Institute of Technology2.02-1.06vs Predicted
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14Hamilton College0.75+1.33vs Predicted
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15Hampton University0.60+0.83vs Predicted
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16Columbia University2.13-4.25vs Predicted
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17George Washington University2.23-5.53vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.30-10.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.49Georgetown University4.330.1%1st Place
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8.79SUNY Maritime College3.000.0%1st Place
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8.56St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.0%1st Place
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4.91U. S. Naval Academy4.090.1%1st Place
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9.56University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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11.19Washington College2.290.0%1st Place
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10.35Fordham University2.500.0%1st Place
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5.16Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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7.53Cornell University3.270.1%1st Place
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13.86Princeton University1.500.0%1st Place
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4.15Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.450.2%1st Place
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8.82University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
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11.94Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.0%1st Place
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15.33Hamilton College0.750.0%1st Place
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15.83Hampton University0.600.0%1st Place
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11.75Columbia University2.130.0%1st Place
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11.47George Washington University2.230.0%1st Place
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7.31U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.300.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Furnary | 15.0% | 15.5% | 14.8% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted Green | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| John Wallace | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Clark Hayes | 14.4% | 12.1% | 13.1% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Mildred Conroy | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 11.8% | 11.5% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 2.1% |
| Joseph Turchiano | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 1.0% |
| Dillon Paiva | 11.9% | 13.6% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Philip Alley | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Gene Merewether | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 10.6% | 16.6% | 20.1% | 11.8% |
| David Thompson | 18.4% | 14.9% | 14.7% | 13.8% | 11.8% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Stessing | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Christian Geary | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 3.3% |
| Julie Webster | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 8.1% | 11.9% | 20.9% | 33.1% |
| Kimannee Simon | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 10.4% | 19.6% | 42.3% |
| David Coplon | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 10.6% | 7.2% | 10.8% | 12.7% | 6.9% | 3.2% |
| Meredith Carroll | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 6.6% | 2.1% |
| Nick Aswad | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.