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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.81+6.49vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.64+2.51vs Predicted
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3Connecticut College2.82+4.47vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.99+2.54vs Predicted
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5Tulane University2.70+2.67vs Predicted
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6University of Hawaii1.94+4.84vs Predicted
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7Yale University2.75+0.53vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.06+2.22vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95+1.80vs Predicted
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10Fordham University1.90+1.20vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Barbara1.85+0.26vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-2.79vs Predicted
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13University of Miami2.07-2.90vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University2.50-5.82vs Predicted
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15Jacksonville University1.24-1.63vs Predicted
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16Cornell University2.43-7.10vs Predicted
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17University of Rhode Island2.07-6.64vs Predicted
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18University of Michigan0.53-2.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.49Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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4.51Harvard University3.640.1%1st Place
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7.47Connecticut College2.820.1%1st Place
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6.54U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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7.67Tulane University2.700.1%1st Place
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10.84University of Hawaii1.940.0%1st Place
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7.53Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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10.22University of Pennsylvania2.060.0%1st Place
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10.8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.0%1st Place
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11.2Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
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11.26University of California at Santa Barbara1.850.0%1st Place
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9.21Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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10.1University of Miami2.070.0%1st Place
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8.18Roger Williams University2.500.1%1st Place
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13.37Jacksonville University1.240.0%1st Place
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8.9Cornell University2.430.1%1st Place
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10.36University of Rhode Island2.070.0%1st Place
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15.35University of Michigan0.530.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Hall | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Justin Callahan | 14.6% | 17.2% | 13.8% | 12.8% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 7.2% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| Nathan Smith | 10.2% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 7.0% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Owen Lahr | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 5.6% |
| Carmen Cowles | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Sofia Segalla | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 2.6% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 3.7% |
| Patrick Dolan | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 5.6% |
| David Alexander | 4.0% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 6.3% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 1.1% |
| Richard McCann | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 3.1% |
| Cameron Wood | 6.6% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| Brent Penwarden | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 17.8% | 17.7% |
| Meredith Moran | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 1.5% |
| Miles Williams | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 2.5% |
| Brody Schwartz | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 13.1% | 47.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.