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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.75+6.82vs Predicted
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2Tulane University2.70+5.97vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.99+3.79vs Predicted
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4Harvard University3.64+0.42vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.81+2.36vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95+4.89vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College2.82+0.31vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University2.50+0.52vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.43-0.15vs Predicted
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10University of Miami2.27-0.20vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania2.06-0.47vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-2.60vs Predicted
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13Jacksonville University1.65-1.17vs Predicted
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14University of Rhode Island2.07-3.95vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Barbara1.85-3.76vs Predicted
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16University of Hawaii1.94-5.09vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan0.05-0.55vs Predicted
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18Fordham University1.90-7.14vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.82Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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7.97Tulane University2.700.1%1st Place
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6.79U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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4.42Harvard University3.640.2%1st Place
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7.36Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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10.89U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.0%1st Place
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7.31Connecticut College2.820.1%1st Place
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8.52Roger Williams University2.500.1%1st Place
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8.85Cornell University2.430.0%1st Place
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9.8University of Miami2.270.1%1st Place
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10.53University of Pennsylvania2.060.0%1st Place
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9.4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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11.83Jacksonville University1.650.0%1st Place
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10.05University of Rhode Island2.070.0%1st Place
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11.24University of California at Santa Barbara1.850.0%1st Place
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10.91University of Hawaii1.940.0%1st Place
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16.45University of Michigan0.050.0%1st Place
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10.86Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmen Cowles | 6.3% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Nathan Smith | 9.0% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Justin Callahan | 18.9% | 15.8% | 13.4% | 11.9% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Hall | 7.6% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 4.0% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Cameron Wood | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| Meredith Moran | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 0.5% |
| Aidan Dennis | 5.3% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 1.4% |
| Sofia Segalla | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 3.3% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 1.3% |
| Emily Allen | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 11.9% | 14.2% | 5.6% |
| Miles Williams | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 2.0% |
| David Alexander | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 4.5% |
| Owen Lahr | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 10.6% | 3.7% |
| Samuel Stephens | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 9.3% | 67.8% |
| Patrick Dolan | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 3.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.