← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Bowdoin College2.81+6.45vs Predicted
-
2Jacksonville University1.24+11.54vs Predicted
-
3Connecticut College2.82+4.35vs Predicted
-
4Yale University2.75+3.34vs Predicted
-
5University of Pennsylvania2.09+4.96vs Predicted
-
6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95+4.68vs Predicted
-
7Harvard University3.64-2.63vs Predicted
-
8U. S. Naval Academy2.99-1.53vs Predicted
-
9Roger Williams University2.50-0.62vs Predicted
-
10Tulane University2.70-2.14vs Predicted
-
11University of Miami2.27-1.52vs Predicted
-
12University of California at Santa Barbara1.85-0.62vs Predicted
-
13Cornell University2.43-4.42vs Predicted
-
14University of Rhode Island2.07-4.17vs Predicted
-
15Fordham University1.90-4.18vs Predicted
-
16University of Hawaii1.94-5.21vs Predicted
-
17Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.99-6.44vs Predicted
-
18University of Michigan0.05-1.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
7.45Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
-
13.54Jacksonville University1.240.0%1st Place
-
7.35Connecticut College2.820.1%1st Place
-
7.34Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
-
9.96University of Pennsylvania2.090.0%1st Place
-
10.68U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.0%1st Place
-
4.37Harvard University3.640.2%1st Place
-
6.47U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
-
8.38Roger Williams University2.500.1%1st Place
-
7.86Tulane University2.700.1%1st Place
-
9.48University of Miami2.270.1%1st Place
-
11.38University of California at Santa Barbara1.850.0%1st Place
-
8.58Cornell University2.430.1%1st Place
-
9.83University of Rhode Island2.070.0%1st Place
-
10.82Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
-
10.79University of Hawaii1.940.0%1st Place
-
10.56Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.990.0%1st Place
-
16.18University of Michigan0.050.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Hall | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Brent Penwarden | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 9.9% | 12.4% | 21.7% | 12.4% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Carmen Cowles | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Samuel Gavula | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 2.0% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 4.3% |
| Justin Callahan | 17.8% | 18.0% | 13.0% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 10.1% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Cameron Wood | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Aidan Dennis | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 8.8% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 1.7% |
| David Alexander | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 4.8% |
| Meredith Moran | 6.0% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Miles Williams | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 1.9% |
| Patrick Dolan | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 3.4% |
| Owen Lahr | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 3.9% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 2.8% |
| Samuel Stephens | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 6.7% | 13.2% | 60.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.