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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.64+3.53vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.75+5.55vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.50+5.57vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.90+6.66vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.81+2.17vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College2.82+1.12vs Predicted
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7Tulane University2.70+0.57vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Barbara1.85+2.87vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.99+1.41vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania2.09+0.28vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95-0.27vs Predicted
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12University of Miami2.07-1.52vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy2.99-6.59vs Predicted
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14Cornell University2.43-5.63vs Predicted
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15University of Hawaii1.94-4.40vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan0.05+0.31vs Predicted
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17University of Rhode Island2.07-6.74vs Predicted
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18Jacksonville University1.24-4.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.53Harvard University3.640.2%1st Place
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7.55Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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8.57Roger Williams University2.500.1%1st Place
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10.66Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
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7.17Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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7.12Connecticut College2.820.1%1st Place
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7.57Tulane University2.700.1%1st Place
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10.87University of California at Santa Barbara1.850.0%1st Place
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10.41Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.990.0%1st Place
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10.28University of Pennsylvania2.090.0%1st Place
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10.73U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.0%1st Place
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10.48University of Miami2.070.0%1st Place
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6.41U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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8.37Cornell University2.430.1%1st Place
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10.6University of Hawaii1.940.0%1st Place
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16.31University of Michigan0.050.0%1st Place
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10.26University of Rhode Island2.070.0%1st Place
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13.1Jacksonville University1.240.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Callahan | 17.2% | 16.6% | 13.9% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carmen Cowles | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Cameron Wood | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Patrick Dolan | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 4.3% |
| Thomas Hall | 8.3% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 8.2% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| David Alexander | 3.6% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 2.9% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 5.3% | 2.0% |
| Samuel Gavula | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 2.3% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 4.1% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 3.5% |
| Richard McCann | 3.7% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 3.2% |
| Nathan Smith | 10.0% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 11.0% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Meredith Moran | 5.4% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 0.8% |
| Owen Lahr | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 3.4% |
| Samuel Stephens | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 13.3% | 61.9% |
| Miles Williams | 3.7% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 3.1% |
| Brent Penwarden | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 20.3% | 11.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.