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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.64+3.52vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.43+6.96vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.81+4.39vs Predicted
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4Tulane University2.70+3.49vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island2.07+5.05vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.99+0.50vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College2.82+0.17vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95+2.47vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.90+1.81vs Predicted
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10University of Hawaii1.94+0.82vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University2.50-2.44vs Predicted
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12Jacksonville University1.24+1.55vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Barbara1.85-2.19vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.99-3.91vs Predicted
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15University of Miami2.07-4.91vs Predicted
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16Yale University2.75-8.55vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan0.05-0.66vs Predicted
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18University of Pennsylvania2.09-8.09vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.52Harvard University3.640.2%1st Place
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8.96Cornell University2.430.0%1st Place
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7.39Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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7.49Tulane University2.700.1%1st Place
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10.05University of Rhode Island2.070.0%1st Place
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6.5U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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7.17Connecticut College2.820.1%1st Place
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10.47U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.0%1st Place
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10.81Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
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10.82University of Hawaii1.940.0%1st Place
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8.56Roger Williams University2.500.1%1st Place
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13.55Jacksonville University1.240.0%1st Place
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10.81University of California at Santa Barbara1.850.0%1st Place
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10.09Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.990.0%1st Place
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10.09University of Miami2.070.0%1st Place
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7.45Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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16.34University of Michigan0.050.0%1st Place
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9.91University of Pennsylvania2.090.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Callahan | 17.4% | 16.1% | 14.4% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Meredith Moran | 4.2% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| Thomas Hall | 7.5% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 8.1% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Miles Williams | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 2.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 10.0% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 8.6% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 5.7% | 3.2% |
| Patrick Dolan | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 2.5% |
| Owen Lahr | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 2.6% |
| Cameron Wood | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Brent Penwarden | 1.4% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 11.3% | 23.1% | 14.0% |
| David Alexander | 3.5% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 2.9% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 3.8% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 1.9% |
| Richard McCann | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 1.8% |
| Carmen Cowles | 6.4% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Samuel Stephens | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 5.8% | 11.3% | 64.2% |
| Samuel Gavula | 4.7% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 2.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.