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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University4.33+3.70vs Predicted
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2Washington College2.29+9.54vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy4.09+2.24vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.45+0.14vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.50+5.42vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University4.01-0.64vs Predicted
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7George Washington University2.23+4.42vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College3.00+0.70vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland3.80-3.01vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.30-2.12vs Predicted
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11Hamilton College0.75+4.59vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.68-1.80vs Predicted
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13Stevens Institute of Technology2.02-1.00vs Predicted
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14Cornell University3.27-6.40vs Predicted
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15Hampton University0.60+0.88vs Predicted
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16Columbia University2.13-4.12vs Predicted
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17Princeton University1.50-3.12vs Predicted
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18University of Virginia3.01-9.42vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.7Georgetown University4.330.1%1st Place
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11.54Washington College2.290.0%1st Place
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5.24U. S. Naval Academy4.090.1%1st Place
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4.14Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.450.2%1st Place
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10.42Fordham University2.500.0%1st Place
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5.36Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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11.42George Washington University2.230.0%1st Place
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8.7SUNY Maritime College3.000.0%1st Place
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5.99St. Mary's College of Maryland3.800.1%1st Place
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7.88U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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15.59Hamilton College0.750.0%1st Place
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10.2University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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12.0Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.0%1st Place
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7.6Cornell University3.270.1%1st Place
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15.88Hampton University0.600.0%1st Place
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11.88Columbia University2.130.0%1st Place
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13.88Princeton University1.500.0%1st Place
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8.58University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Furnary | 14.9% | 14.4% | 11.7% | 12.3% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mildred Conroy | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 12.0% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 5.0% | 2.0% |
| Clark Hayes | 11.5% | 10.6% | 12.6% | 12.1% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 6.3% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Thompson | 18.0% | 18.6% | 14.2% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Turchiano | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 0.9% |
| Dillon Paiva | 11.4% | 10.5% | 12.6% | 12.3% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Meredith Carroll | 2.6% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 12.1% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 1.8% |
| Ted Green | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Megan Magill | 8.7% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nick Aswad | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Julie Webster | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 7.4% | 11.6% | 22.4% | 36.2% |
| Michael Russom | 2.6% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| Christian Geary | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 12.1% | 10.1% | 2.9% |
| Philip Alley | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Kimannee Simon | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 11.0% | 20.8% | 40.9% |
| David Coplon | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 8.0% | 2.6% |
| Gene Merewether | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 8.7% | 12.3% | 16.3% | 17.6% | 11.7% |
| Christopher Stessing | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 10.8% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.