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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island2.78+8.03vs Predicted
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2Jacksonville University2.10+7.60vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.75+3.97vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College2.90+2.63vs Predicted
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5Stanford University2.61+1.64vs Predicted
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6Tulane University2.04+3.53vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.94+5.35vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Barbara1.78+2.56vs Predicted
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9University of Miami2.32-0.01vs Predicted
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10Harvard University3.05-3.85vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-2.97vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy2.60-3.93vs Predicted
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13Webb Institute1.43-1.15vs Predicted
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14University of Hawaii1.56-2.83vs Predicted
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15University of Southern California1.40-4.28vs Predicted
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16Boston College2.20-7.34vs Predicted
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17University of South Florida0.90-3.95vs Predicted
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18Northwestern University1.27-4.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.03University of Rhode Island2.786.0%1st Place
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9.6Jacksonville University2.104.8%1st Place
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6.97Georgetown University2.758.3%1st Place
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6.63Dartmouth College2.909.6%1st Place
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6.64Stanford University2.619.4%1st Place
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9.53Tulane University2.044.9%1st Place
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12.35Fordham University1.942.8%1st Place
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10.56University of California at Santa Barbara1.784.2%1st Place
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8.99University of Miami2.325.6%1st Place
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6.15Harvard University3.0510.6%1st Place
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8.03Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.317.0%1st Place
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8.07U. S. Naval Academy2.607.0%1st Place
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11.85Webb Institute1.432.8%1st Place
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11.17University of Hawaii1.563.8%1st Place
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10.72University of Southern California1.403.4%1st Place
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8.66Boston College2.205.9%1st Place
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13.05University of South Florida0.901.9%1st Place
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13.02Northwestern University1.271.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerem Erkmen | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.0% |
| Owen Bannasch | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 2.6% |
| Mariner Fagan | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Robert Bragg | 9.6% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 9.4% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Thad Lettsome | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 2.4% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 16.2% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 5.1% |
| Atlee Kohl | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 1.8% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 10.6% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Sam Bruce | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| Nathan Smith | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Payne Donaldson | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 11.2% |
| Trey Summers | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.0% |
| Luke Harris | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.3% |
| Michael Kirkman | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| Andreas Keswater | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 13.5% | 20.3% |
| Jake Weinstein | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 12.3% | 20.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.