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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University1.73+6.77vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University3.10+1.68vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.05+3.72vs Predicted
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4Salve Regina University1.74+3.86vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College2.43+0.73vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.38-0.24vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island2.10-0.40vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University1.09+2.03vs Predicted
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9Tufts University1.90-1.72vs Predicted
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10Yale University1.67-1.83vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College0.70+0.16vs Predicted
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12Fairfield University1.06-1.63vs Predicted
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13Brown University2.22-6.50vs Predicted
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14Salve Regina University-0.07-1.07vs Predicted
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15Boston University1.25-5.58vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.77Brown University1.730.1%1st Place
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3.68Roger Williams University3.100.2%1st Place
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6.72Tufts University2.050.1%1st Place
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7.86Salve Regina University1.740.0%1st Place
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5.73Dartmouth College2.430.1%1st Place
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5.76Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
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6.6University of Rhode Island2.100.1%1st Place
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10.03Northeastern University1.090.0%1st Place
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7.28Tufts University1.900.1%1st Place
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8.17Yale University1.670.0%1st Place
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11.16Connecticut College0.700.0%1st Place
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10.37Fairfield University1.060.0%1st Place
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6.5Brown University2.220.1%1st Place
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12.93Salve Regina University-0.070.0%1st Place
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9.42Boston University1.250.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte Costikyan | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 2.4% |
| Carlos de Castro | 24.0% | 17.9% | 14.0% | 13.3% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Eastman | 6.7% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Nils Tullberg | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 1.5% |
| bella casaretto | 10.0% | 12.3% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Mathieu Dale | 9.6% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Nash | 9.2% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| Peter Taboada | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 11.1% | 12.5% | 14.2% | 8.5% |
| Shea Smith | 5.9% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 2.9% |
| Andrew Powers | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 13.8% | 18.9% | 17.8% |
| Wilson Kaznoski | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 12.8% | 13.2% | 13.4% | 10.5% |
| Jed Bell | 8.5% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Sean Crandall | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 15.3% | 47.8% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 3.1% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 12.3% | 11.3% | 5.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.