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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University1.90+6.26vs Predicted
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2Tufts University2.05+4.67vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.43+2.48vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University3.10-0.21vs Predicted
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5Yale University1.67+3.14vs Predicted
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6Boston University1.25+3.56vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island2.10-0.41vs Predicted
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8Brown University1.73-0.06vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University2.38-3.28vs Predicted
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10Brown University2.22-3.59vs Predicted
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11Salve Regina University1.74-3.10vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University1.09-1.76vs Predicted
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13Fairfield University1.06-2.72vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College0.70-2.87vs Predicted
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15Salve Regina University-0.07-2.13vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.26Tufts University1.900.1%1st Place
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6.67Tufts University2.050.1%1st Place
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5.48Dartmouth College2.430.1%1st Place
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3.79Roger Williams University3.100.2%1st Place
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8.14Yale University1.670.1%1st Place
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9.56Boston University1.250.0%1st Place
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6.59University of Rhode Island2.100.1%1st Place
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7.94Brown University1.730.1%1st Place
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5.72Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
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6.41Brown University2.220.1%1st Place
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7.9Salve Regina University1.740.0%1st Place
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10.24Northeastern University1.090.0%1st Place
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10.28Fairfield University1.060.0%1st Place
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11.13Connecticut College0.700.0%1st Place
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12.87Salve Regina University-0.070.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shea Smith | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 1.7% |
| John Eastman | 7.1% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| bella casaretto | 11.6% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Carlos de Castro | 22.1% | 19.2% | 13.0% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 2.0% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 2.8% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 12.3% | 10.5% | 5.6% |
| Tyler Nash | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Charlotte Costikyan | 5.9% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 2.3% |
| Mathieu Dale | 9.4% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Jed Bell | 8.0% | 7.2% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Nils Tullberg | 4.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 2.7% |
| Peter Taboada | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 13.2% | 14.6% | 8.6% |
| Wilson Kaznoski | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 12.6% | 14.2% | 10.5% |
| Andrew Powers | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 12.6% | 19.6% | 17.1% |
| Sean Crandall | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 9.7% | 15.0% | 48.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.