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📊 Prediction Accuracy
20.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.43+4.52vs Predicted
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2Yale University1.67+5.88vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.05+3.73vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University3.10-0.20vs Predicted
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5Brown University2.22+1.36vs Predicted
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6Boston University1.25+3.58vs Predicted
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7Salve Regina University1.74+0.78vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College0.70+3.13vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island2.10-2.41vs Predicted
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10Tufts University1.90-2.57vs Predicted
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11Brown University1.73-3.02vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University2.38-6.01vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University1.09-2.77vs Predicted
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14Fairfield University1.06-3.92vs Predicted
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15Salve Regina University-0.07-2.09vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.52Dartmouth College2.430.1%1st Place
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7.88Yale University1.670.1%1st Place
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6.73Tufts University2.050.1%1st Place
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3.8Roger Williams University3.100.2%1st Place
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6.36Brown University2.220.1%1st Place
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9.58Boston University1.250.0%1st Place
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7.78Salve Regina University1.740.1%1st Place
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11.13Connecticut College0.700.0%1st Place
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6.59University of Rhode Island2.100.1%1st Place
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7.43Tufts University1.900.1%1st Place
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7.98Brown University1.730.0%1st Place
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5.99Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
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10.23Northeastern University1.090.0%1st Place
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10.08Fairfield University1.060.0%1st Place
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12.91Salve Regina University-0.070.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bella casaretto | 11.9% | 11.9% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 2.0% |
| John Eastman | 7.6% | 7.2% | 10.5% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Carlos de Castro | 22.0% | 19.2% | 12.8% | 11.6% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Jed Bell | 9.0% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 12.1% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 5.7% |
| Nils Tullberg | 6.8% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 4.6% | 1.8% |
| Andrew Powers | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 13.5% | 19.0% | 17.7% |
| Tyler Nash | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Shea Smith | 6.5% | 4.6% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 0.7% |
| Charlotte Costikyan | 4.6% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 4.8% | 3.0% |
| Mathieu Dale | 8.7% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Peter Taboada | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 9.9% | 11.6% | 12.4% | 15.7% | 9.3% |
| Wilson Kaznoski | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 12.3% | 11.0% | 14.8% | 9.0% |
| Sean Crandall | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 14.7% | 49.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.