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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.90+5.47vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.61+4.74vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.05+3.07vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+3.90vs Predicted
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5Jacksonville University2.10+4.69vs Predicted
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6University of Miami2.32+3.05vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University2.750.00vs Predicted
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8Boston College2.20+0.71vs Predicted
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9Tulane University2.04+0.50vs Predicted
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10University of Hawaii1.56+1.22vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy2.60-3.08vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute1.43-0.21vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Barbara1.78-2.48vs Predicted
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14Fordham University1.94-1.45vs Predicted
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15University of Rhode Island2.78-6.00vs Predicted
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16University of South Florida0.90-3.04vs Predicted
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17Northwestern University1.27-3.97vs Predicted
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18University of Southern California1.40-7.13vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.47Dartmouth College2.9010.4%1st Place
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6.74Stanford University2.619.8%1st Place
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6.07Harvard University3.0511.7%1st Place
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7.9Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.316.3%1st Place
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9.69Jacksonville University2.104.7%1st Place
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9.05University of Miami2.324.7%1st Place
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7.0Georgetown University2.759.4%1st Place
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8.71Boston College2.205.9%1st Place
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9.5Tulane University2.044.8%1st Place
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11.22University of Hawaii1.563.4%1st Place
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7.92U. S. Naval Academy2.607.8%1st Place
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11.79Webb Institute1.432.9%1st Place
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10.52University of California at Santa Barbara1.783.5%1st Place
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12.55Fordham University1.941.8%1st Place
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9.0University of Rhode Island2.785.3%1st Place
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12.96University of South Florida0.901.8%1st Place
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13.03Northwestern University1.271.9%1st Place
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10.87University of Southern California1.403.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Bragg | 10.4% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 9.8% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 11.7% | 11.9% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Sam Bruce | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| Owen Bannasch | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 2.9% |
| Atlee Kohl | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.5% |
| Mariner Fagan | 9.4% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Michael Kirkman | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 1.7% |
| Thad Lettsome | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 2.9% |
| Trey Summers | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 10.7% | 7.6% |
| Nathan Smith | 7.8% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Payne Donaldson | 2.9% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 11.9% | 11.1% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 3.5% | 2.9% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 17.6% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 5.3% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.2% |
| Andreas Keswater | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 12.4% | 19.2% |
| Jake Weinstein | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 14.1% | 19.8% |
| Luke Harris | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 5.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.