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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University2.05+5.17vs Predicted
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2Tufts University1.90+4.54vs Predicted
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3Fairfield University1.06+6.56vs Predicted
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4Salve Regina University1.74+3.28vs Predicted
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5Yale University1.67+2.58vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University0.88+4.33vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College2.43-1.96vs Predicted
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8Brown University1.69-0.40vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University1.63-1.44vs Predicted
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10Brown University1.83-2.92vs Predicted
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11Salve Regina University-0.07+1.80vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island2.10-5.67vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College1.43-4.34vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University1.38-5.51vs Predicted
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15Boston University1.25-6.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.17Tufts University2.050.1%1st Place
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6.54Tufts University1.900.1%1st Place
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9.56Fairfield University1.060.0%1st Place
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7.28Salve Regina University1.740.1%1st Place
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7.58Yale University1.670.1%1st Place
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10.33Northeastern University0.880.0%1st Place
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5.04Dartmouth College2.430.1%1st Place
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7.6Brown University1.690.1%1st Place
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7.56Roger Williams University1.630.1%1st Place
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7.08Brown University1.830.1%1st Place
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12.8Salve Regina University-0.070.0%1st Place
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6.33University of Rhode Island2.100.1%1st Place
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8.66Connecticut College1.430.1%1st Place
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8.49Roger Williams University1.380.0%1st Place
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8.96Boston University1.250.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Eastman | 10.6% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Shea Smith | 8.5% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 0.8% |
| Wilson Kaznoski | 4.2% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 12.8% | 12.6% | 8.2% |
| Nils Tullberg | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 1.7% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 7.1% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 2.1% |
| Aidan Boni | 2.4% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 12.0% | 17.2% | 11.4% |
| bella casaretto | 14.5% | 12.4% | 12.3% | 11.9% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| William George | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 2.9% |
| William Bailey | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 1.6% |
| Emily Mueller | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 1.5% |
| Sean Crandall | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 13.7% | 51.3% |
| Tyler Nash | 9.7% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| Ryan Mckinney | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 5.3% |
| Luke Hosek | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 4.7% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 5.0% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 6.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.