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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+4.05vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles1.30+3.24vs Predicted
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3University of Texas1.63+1.49vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.05+2.21vs Predicted
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5University of North Texas1.72-0.60vs Predicted
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6California Poly Maritime Academy0.74+1.29vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz0.48+0.67vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley0.66-0.69vs Predicted
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9University of Washington0.38-0.70vs Predicted
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10San Diego State University0.17-1.00vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego0.50-3.09vs Predicted
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12Northwestern University0.07-2.79vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis-0.43-2.56vs Predicted
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14California State University Channel Islands-1.43-1.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.05University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.1%1st Place
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5.24University of California at Los Angeles1.300.1%1st Place
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4.49University of Texas1.630.2%1st Place
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6.21Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.050.1%1st Place
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4.4University of North Texas1.720.1%1st Place
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7.29California Poly Maritime Academy0.740.1%1st Place
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7.67University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.1%1st Place
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7.31University of California at Berkeley0.660.1%1st Place
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8.3University of Washington0.380.0%1st Place
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9.0San Diego State University0.170.0%1st Place
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7.91University of California at San Diego0.500.0%1st Place
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9.21Northwestern University0.070.0%1st Place
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10.44University of California at Davis-0.430.0%1st Place
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12.48California State University Channel Islands-1.430.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted McDonough | 12.9% | 12.7% | 13.0% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 12.4% | 12.1% | 9.8% | 12.5% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Ethan Froelich | 15.7% | 14.3% | 13.4% | 12.5% | 11.3% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Kai Ponting | 7.3% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Dutch Byerly | 14.4% | 16.5% | 14.6% | 12.7% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Ben Louttit | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 1.2% |
| George Soliman | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 2.0% |
| Will Cornell | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 1.6% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 4.8% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 8.2% | 2.9% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 11.7% | 12.8% | 11.8% | 6.8% |
| Noah Barton | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 2.3% |
| Matthew Beretta | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 11.0% | 9.3% | 12.7% | 13.6% | 7.9% |
| Braedon Hansen | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 14.6% | 20.8% | 16.5% |
| Rob Reigelman | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 13.6% | 57.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.