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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+4.04vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles1.30+3.26vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.05+3.15vs Predicted
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4University of North Texas1.72+0.29vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz0.48+3.06vs Predicted
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6California Poly Maritime Academy0.74+1.26vs Predicted
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7University of Washington0.38+0.99vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley0.66-0.68vs Predicted
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9University of Texas1.63-4.40vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego0.50-2.02vs Predicted
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11San Diego State University0.17-2.04vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis-0.43-1.45vs Predicted
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13California State University Channel Islands-1.43-0.53vs Predicted
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14Northwestern University0.07-4.94vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.04University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.1%1st Place
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5.26University of California at Los Angeles1.300.1%1st Place
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6.15Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.050.1%1st Place
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4.29University of North Texas1.720.2%1st Place
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8.06University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.0%1st Place
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7.26California Poly Maritime Academy0.740.1%1st Place
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7.99University of Washington0.380.0%1st Place
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7.32University of California at Berkeley0.660.1%1st Place
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4.6University of Texas1.630.2%1st Place
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7.98University of California at San Diego0.500.0%1st Place
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8.96San Diego State University0.170.0%1st Place
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10.55University of California at Davis-0.430.0%1st Place
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12.47California State University Channel Islands-1.430.0%1st Place
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9.06Northwestern University0.070.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted McDonough | 12.2% | 13.6% | 13.3% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 11.7% | 11.0% | 13.0% | 11.4% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Kai Ponting | 9.0% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Dutch Byerly | 15.9% | 17.7% | 13.4% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| George Soliman | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 3.8% |
| Ben Louttit | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 1.2% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 2.5% |
| Will Cornell | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 1.9% |
| Ethan Froelich | 15.4% | 13.3% | 12.5% | 13.1% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Noah Barton | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 2.6% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 11.4% | 13.6% | 12.3% | 5.0% |
| Braedon Hansen | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 15.8% | 20.4% | 17.3% |
| Rob Reigelman | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 7.6% | 14.2% | 58.9% |
| Matthew Beretta | 3.2% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 12.9% | 13.5% | 12.8% | 5.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.