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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+3.84vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Cruz0.48+5.41vs Predicted
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3University of Washington0.25+5.35vs Predicted
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4University of North Texas1.72+0.19vs Predicted
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5San Diego State University0.17+3.71vs Predicted
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6University of Texas1.63-1.52vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.05-1.30vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles1.30-2.72vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley-0.24+0.87vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego0.50-2.30vs Predicted
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11California State University Channel Islands-1.43+1.49vs Predicted
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12California Poly Maritime Academy0.74-5.07vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis-0.43-2.78vs Predicted
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14Northwestern University0.07-5.18vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.84University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.1%1st Place
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7.41University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.0%1st Place
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8.35University of Washington0.250.0%1st Place
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4.19University of North Texas1.720.2%1st Place
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8.71San Diego State University0.170.0%1st Place
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4.48University of Texas1.630.2%1st Place
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5.7Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.050.1%1st Place
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5.28University of California at Los Angeles1.300.1%1st Place
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9.87University of California at Berkeley-0.240.0%1st Place
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7.7University of California at San Diego0.500.0%1st Place
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12.49California State University Channel Islands-1.430.0%1st Place
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6.93California Poly Maritime Academy0.740.1%1st Place
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10.22University of California at Davis-0.430.0%1st Place
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8.82Northwestern University0.070.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted McDonough | 14.1% | 13.1% | 11.7% | 12.0% | 12.6% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| George Soliman | 4.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 2.1% |
| Zackery Martin | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 12.6% | 9.9% | 3.2% |
| Dutch Byerly | 16.2% | 17.2% | 14.3% | 12.6% | 10.9% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 4.9% |
| Ethan Froelich | 16.3% | 13.3% | 14.0% | 12.8% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Kai Ponting | 9.6% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 11.4% | 11.7% | 12.9% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Luc LaMontagne | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 10.1% | 12.8% | 13.9% | 17.5% | 10.1% |
| Noah Barton | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 3.6% | 2.5% |
| Rob Reigelman | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 8.1% | 13.3% | 58.0% |
| Ben Louttit | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 1.1% |
| Braedon Hansen | 2.7% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 13.5% | 20.9% | 13.5% |
| Matthew Beretta | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 12.6% | 11.6% | 4.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.